The Blackboard

I’ve been bummed that I can never scoop Roy Spencer on the UAH temperature anomalies. I wracked my brains trying to figure out how I can come out with some sort of “first” temperature reading of the month. I considered a number of strategies:

The opening paragraph in Tom Skilling Blog makes me grumpy.

Ahhh… the joys of smoothing. The splendors of Mannian minimum roughness!

As a Chicagoan, I always chuckle when I read UK news reports about killer weather. Take this example from the UK Met office which begins

Those following the fishtale of m=11 smoothing to test the TAR projection will be interested to learn that Stefan Rahmstorf confirms what we, in the more “excitable” part of the blogosphere, suspected: He has abandoned m=11 year smoothing to test observations against models. He now uses m=15 years. JeanS shows the difference in trend projections back when Rahmstorf et al was published in 2007 and now, using both m=11 years and m-15 years: [caption id="attachment_5517" align="aligncenter" width="499" caption="Figure 1: Comparison of change due to smoothing."][/caption]

Monckton’s June Missive invokes “Godwin’s Rule of Nazi Analogies”.

In late May, I mentioned blog had been the victim of a script injection attack which I cleared up. Tetris had noticed that the WUWT and CA had been attacked during the year and thought the attacks might be politically motivated. I doubted that theory. The reason tetris notices sites he visits are attacked is not because they are attacked any more often than sites he doesn’t visit. It’s because he only notices hackage at sites he visits.

Today’s The Breakthrough Blog post begins

Are the TAR and AR “projections” really different? This question seems to be asked constantly at blogs, so I wanted to created graphs that I think permit a fair comparisons.