The Blackboard:

William Connolley suggested one can show that the very recent down-trends and flatlinining of the GMST is expected based on past variability. He points out that ‘natural variability’ results in 5 year average down trends happen during major uptrends. We can learn that by examining a graph like this:

See loads of down-trends before the [...]

For some reason, many in comments seem anxious to find that the IPCC projections and their uncertainty intervals must be consistent with the recent weather pattern. The objections are scatter shot, odd, and unceasingly wrong. I will characterize some, and responde:

The current falsification of the 2 C/century based on 6 years and 1 [...]