The Blackboard:

William Connolley suggested one can show that the very recent down-trends and flatlinining of the GMST is expected based on past variability. He points out that ‘natural variability’ results in 5 year average down trends happen during major uptrends. We can learn that by examining a graph like this:

See loads of down-trends before the [...]

For some reason, many in comments seem anxious to find that the IPCC projections and their uncertainty intervals must be consistent with the recent weather pattern. The objections are scatter shot, odd, and unceasingly wrong. I will characterize some, and responde:

The current falsification of the 2 C/century based on 6 years and 1 [...]

As many climate warming junkies are aware, a number of people began to notice a sort of “flatness” in the Global Mean Surface Temperature in the past decade. Way back in December, in attempt to prove the recent trend in temperature has no statistically significant meaning, the Blogger formerly known as Tamino did [...]

I clicked a link to one of the silliest blog posts trying to persuade us to act now to prevent runaway climate warming.
The whole argument is done by analogy. As far as I can tell, the premise is that if you leave your the water running in a draining bathtub, and then run [...]

In my previous post, I showed the IPCC projections from the AR4 are inconsistent with Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) measurements collected since the time the IPCC projections were first published. To support that claim, I performed a linear regression, correcting for serial autocorrelation in the residuals, using a “Cochrane-Orcutt”, a standard method.
Specifically, I [...]

It’s true. Every climate blogger knows it. Global Mean Surface Temperature have gone a bit flat. But is the recent flat trend statistically significant? Well, as my readers know, I took up Roger Jr.’s suggestion and set out to compare IPCC projections to data collected after the projections were made.
Over the weekend, I [...]

Today, I’m going to try to apply Cochrane-Orcutt a method that could be used to deal with serial autocorrelation in residuals to a linear regression. I hadn’t done this before, so I hunted down some references, and read how it’s supposed to be done.
I have some result– but the problem is I really [...]

After I described a possible falsification test for IPCC data, and explained what future data might falsify IPCC predictions two notable things happened:

Some of my readers asked me to start sifting back through historical data to discover if there is any data anywhere that falsifies any IPCC projection ever made. I’m not going to do [...]

Today, I’m going to try to apply Cochrane-Orcutt a method that could be used to deal with serial autocorrelation in residuals to a linear regression. I hadn’t done this before, so I hunted down some references, and read how it’s supposed to be done.
I have some result– but the problem is I really [...]

Recently, I posted a test one could apply to IPCC projections to see if future data falsifies a specific consensus prediction for global warming. I said that if the slope of GMST obtained by OCL was 0C/century or less for the 10 years including 2001-2010, inclusive, then, the 2.0C/century or greater predicted trends [...]