The Blackboard

Atmoz proposed a bet on the summer sea ice extent and placed his bet at 7.7 million km^2, using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression on data from 1950 to last year. This means he is predicting the ice will be well above last years record low of 5.557 million km^2. I predict 7.4 million [...]

Don J. Easterbrook, a retired professor from the Dept. of Geology, Western Washington University, in Bellingham, WA sent Anthony Watts a brief analysis of the effect of the PDO on climate: Dr. Easterbrook’s analysis (PDF). The analysis included two figures: a) a graphic illustrating the PDO over time, and b) Dr. Easterbrooks projection for temperatures. [...]

NASA’s Earth Observatory News announced the PDO has entered a cool phase, thought to enhance the effects of La Ninos and diminish those of El Nino. I snagged the larger NASA image of sea surface temperatures for April 14–21, 2008and highlighted the cool spot caused by the PDO and the cool spot caused by La [...]

I haven’t taken any “pre-peeks”, but it occurred to me that, since Global Warming predicts surface warming with stratospheric cooling, it might be useful if I also run tests on the stratosphere. I found the NOAA page with MSU and RSS data. As I’d like to look at as much data as possible and compare [...]

I’ve trying to avoid discussing the favorite topic of all skeptic blogs. You know what I mean: The all powerful sun whose dimming may have caused Kristen Byrnes to Ponder the Maunder and a frequent commenter at Tamino’s to post comments like: Eli Rabett // April 5, 2008 at 11:59 pm What part of there [...]

Atmoz recently ran the difference between RSS and UAH monthly temperature anomalies and reports two things: UAH and RSS temperatures seem to drift since 1979. Atmoz seems a distinct switch in 1992. (I too see the too. It’s noteworthy, and worth discussing. However, I have no particular ideas. So, I won’t be discussing that today.) [...]

I promised I would check the status of the comparison between IPCC AR4 projection of 2C/century each month and report. The NOAA data came in last week, and I had a chance to update my spread sheet with all data series. The main result is: Despite an uptick in the temperature, the IPCC projections or [...]

Recently, David Stockwell has been discussing Rahmstorf et al 2007, focusing on how accounting for uncertainty in the data would affect interpretation of the IPCC TAR predictions relative to data. David has been focusing on issues related to the end points; today I want to discuss something much simpler. How does the uncertainty in determining [...]

Anthony Watts David Smith cracked me up with new word: Also, I am a “lukewarmer” who thinks that the world is warmer than it would otherwise be due to anthropogenic gases (but doubts that the impact will be extreme). Though I dislike argument-by-name calling, I tend to like new words. It does seem to me [...]

As many are aware, Congressional leaders exercising their jaws about the need for action on carbon limits continually finding reasons why they need not act. Today, the Online Wall Street Journal reports this is too much for Representative John Dingle (Democrat), the WSJ reports: If the conclusion on CO2 is desperately self-evident for the EPA, [...]