The Blackboard:

Last week I mentioned Roger Pielke Jr’s interesting article comparing IPCC prediction/projections for Global Mean Surface Temperature observations of measurements taken on the true planet earth. Yesterday, Stefan Rahmstorf posted a rather odd commentary at Real Climate. I say odd, because, as far as I can tell, Stefan’s commentary seems to go off [...]

This morning, as I was sipping my coffee, I noticed that a frequent commenter had posted 4 comments in a row. I don’t mind people posting frequently. But there is a certain point where someone is commenting so much that no one has time to digest what they say or respond. There [...]

Anthony Watts recently posted an interesting observation: The seasonally adjusted CO2 concentration measured at Manau Loa dropped two months in a row. He illustrated this with a graphic available at NOAA which shows a two month drop in the seasonally adjusted values of CO2. Needless to say, “some”, have jumped all over this [...]

This article is motivated by Martin Ringo’s rather important question:
I guess I just don’t understand why the change in temperature should be a constant or a constant plus noise. It would seem to imply an exponential growth, upward or downward, of temperature. What am I missing here?
This question, asked in the context of doing a [...]

Issues and Resolutions:
My recent falsification of the IPCC AR4 projection of 2C/century was criticized as flawed because:

It did not properly account for ENSO.
Cochrane-Orcutt, and its uncertainty bands apply only when the noise is AR(1).

I have addressed both issues (details below), and find the falsification still holds. It is important to note that this falsification [...]

Nature Geoscience published a letter to the editor by Roger Pielke Jr.; the title is Climate predictions and observations. In his letter, Roger included a graphic illustrating IPCC temperature and sea level changes from the first through fourth assessement reports, and compared those to data.

Roger made some brief observations about the comparison, and [...]

My blog philosophy is to consider all possible physical explanations for the data we are examining, and see whether or not they seem to explain the data. As many know, climatologists tell us that much of variability in global mean surface temperature is driven by the ENSO cycle (i.e. the El Nino/La Nina [...]