The Blackboard

Some things must be done. Today, I must criticize Christopher Monckton for his appalling behavior toward Arthur Smith, and suggest Christopher apologize to Arthur.
Normally, I don’t like to play “Mom” and suggest people apologize to those the injured. But, I feel that I can’t ignore this rude behavior and then later post to discuss [...]

As some readers know, there seems to be some debate over whether hypothesis tests of the IPCC projections should use earth data or gcm ‘model data’ to the variability of 8 temperature year (or any number of year) trends observed on the earth’s surface. I’m of the opinion that it is best to use [...]

This post is mostly to list locations where we can find various data sets for “model data” used in IPCC projections.
In an earlier discussion, Gavin left a link to The Climate Explorer very good resource for the IPCC projections. Unlike previous ones I’d visited, this actually provides already post-processed data and individual scenarios. [...]

I’m kind of excited! I think someone has decided to jump in and start doing calculations, and should he permit me to mooch some of his results, that will speed me along doing comparisons! Naturally, I’m hoping I can get people to help Chad.
What’s Chad doing?: Chad’s is examining global mean surface [...]

How many of you think the measurements of GMST are imprecise? As in, they might contain errors of some sort? I do.
Nevertheless, up to now, I have been performing hypothesis tests applying the assumption that the time series data for global mean surface temperature (GMST) are AR(1) distributed. I have [...]

Trends for the Global Means Surface temperature for five groups (GISS, HadCrut, NOAA/NCDC, UAH/MSU and RSS.) were calculated from Jan 2001-June 2008 using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) using the method in Lee & Lund. to compute error bars, and Cochrane-Orcutt and compared to the IPCC AR4’s projected central tendency of 2C/century for the trend [...]

Evidently, the APS (American Physical Society) is inviting papers to debate a very specific conclusion of the IPCC:
There is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with the IPCC conclusion that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are very probably likely to be primarily responsible for the global warming that has [...]

Sometimes, a picture is worth a thousand words.
See the blue vertical line at 2 C/century? That’s the central tendency for trends projected by the IPCC in the AR4.
See the bell-shaped curve? That’s a spread of trends due to “weather noise” that we might expect if the “weather noise” is similar to that [...]

As many know, I’ve been testing the central tendency of the IPCC projection from the AR4 to see if it’s consistent with observed temperatures since 2001. The question I ask is: Is 2 C/century consistent with measurements of the earth’s surface temperature? Since the beginning of the year, the answer has been [...]

This post is a follow up to the previous one so I will not be re-iterating information in that post. I’ll also continue with the previous equation numbers. The first equation in this post will be numbered (3); lower number equations are from the previous post.
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How do the lag 1 correlations of an averaged process [...]