The Blackboard

I’ve always been a firm believer that blogs should cover their hosting costs, but I dislike the “please donate option”. I prefer ads. In that vein, those of you not using ad-blockers have no doubt noticed that banner ads are sprouting. I have decided you, my regular readers deserve an explanation [...]

I fiddled with my spreadsheet and added the most recent 7 day lagging average. As you can see, so far no one has lost. With luck, I won’t have lost before Nov 1 arrives tomorrow!
Because the squiggly line plots are difficult to read, I computed the 2002-2008 average and then found the NH [...]

Santer17, makes an interesting claim in their rebuttal analysis to Douglass 2007. It is this:
“Experiments with synthetic data reveal the use of an AR-1 model for calculating ne trends to over estimate the true effective sample size (Zwiers and von Storch, 1995). This means our d test is too liberal, and more likely [...]

AndyW wanted to know the difference between brownies and cookies. I made a batch of brownies so he could see.
Step 0: Take four eggs out of the fridge and let them come to room temperature. This can take a while. Think about how delicious the brownies will be.
Step 1: Melt 4 oz. unsweetened [...]

October snow fall
surprises the unwary.
Shouldn’t those be leaves?
  

After I threw a blanket over the basil, and took a picture, I checked our local meteorologist’s web page. It seems the record October snow fall occurred in 1967, which was the first fall I lived in the Chicago area. We moved from snow free El Salvador. [...]

Martin kindly collected all the bets in comments, and I made them into a kewl graph! Here’s everyone’s bet:
I also downloaded the range of bets and super-imposed them on the current status of the NH Sea Ice Extent as tallied by JAXA::
My purple box is approximate– I slapped that on by eye. Still… guys…. [...]

This is from Taylor and Gekler’s (2007). (Power Point Presentation.)
The graph prediction index vs. climate prediction skill is also interesting.

It’s generally dangerous to try to conclude too much from power point presentations. I can’t help but wonder, how does “J. Murphy” even know the absolute predictive skill in the earth’s climate sensitivity? Does Murphy know [...]

Have you been following the great “SE vs. SD” debate in comments at Climate Audit? It’s discussed in several threads related to “Santer17″. (See 1, 2 etc.) Are you wondering what it all means?
Two issues were debated in comments:

When testing models for consistency with observational data, did Santer17 use SE or SD?
Which parameter [...]

After Steve McIntyre established that equation (12) Santer17 (pdf ) does not contain a typo, I decided to apply the paired t-test in Santer17 section 4.2 to test two hypotheses; both are similar in form to the one Santer17 refers to as “H2″. My tests however, relate to Global Mean Surface Temperature [...]

HadCrut3 Data
HadCrut GMST data are in: September was cooler than August. If you view the recent HadCrut3(NH+SH) update, you will see they report September as cooler than August. The respective anomalies are 0.385C and 0.376C. This would lead us to conclude the HadCrut September anomaly is down relative to August.
But is it? [...]