Comments on: GISS Brownie Bet: Guess October anomaly… for December!

By: MartinGAtkins

MartinGAtkins — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 02:40:16 +0000

Oct Nov
GISS 0.5800 0.5800 = 0.0000
HadCRUT3 0.4380 0.3870 = -0.0510
NCDC 0.6365 0.6148 = -0.0217
RSS MSU 0.1810 0.2160 = 0.0350
UAH 0.1670 0.2540 = 0.0870

I’m sure I could make composite graph using these numbers, but I think I’ll wait until after the December numbers.

By: lucia

lucia — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 20:22:21 +0000

Ahhh! Well, I have to bake brownies tomorrow. Today, I have to go shovel snow. (I just returned from Glencoe Illinois. I think I left just in time to avoid the largest batch of snow. But I need to go cleear some to avoid suffering later.)

By: adoucette

adoucette — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 16:54:56 +0000

While I agree with Martin’s sentiments…..

GISS has now posted their Nov numbers and they claim the Nov anomaly is the same as the Oct anomaly, or 0.58 C

Which I believe means my guess of 0.54 C is the closest.

Arthur

By: MartinGAtkins

MartinGAtkins — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 06:24:17 +0000

My bet is that GISSTemp will plunge deeper into redundancy.

By: Donald Wilson

Donald Wilson — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 23:58:07 +0000

I’ll bet 0.42 C, I think they will still be a very high outlier. They alone, will show 2008 as among the 10 warmest years.

By: October’s GISSTemp Anomaly Fell Today. | The Blackboard

October’s GISSTemp Anomaly Fell Today. | The Blackboard — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 23:18:52 +0000

[...] important question is: Can I win brownies by guessing the October anomaly when it’s published in December? « Need Money for GISSTemp QA? Why not take it from window [...]

By: adoucette

adoucette — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 19:15:42 +0000

I’ll take .54 C for the combined land/sea anomaly.

Arthur

By: GISSTemp October Anomaly: Take 2 | The Blackboard

GISSTemp October Anomaly: Take 2 | The Blackboard — Thu, 13 Nov 2008 04:45:53 +0000

[...] suspect the October anomaly is still unstable. The Brownie bet to guess the October anomaly to be reported in December is still on! « Pile it Higher and Deeper: Can a Ph.D. Turn Mt. Washington into Mt. [...]

By: Mike Bryant

Mike Bryant — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 19:29:14 +0000

Imaginary phone conversation… colony side only…

Hadcrut? Ya this is GISS here. Could you please give me a little inkling of the anomaly you will publish for October???…. Ya well, we have a number but we would really kinda like to get your take on it too…. Ya that way we can come up with something that will at least not sound too crazy, ya know what I mean… Ya… That LOW huh??.. well ok… I guess we’ll have to be a little higher than that, do you think you might be able to bump that up a bit???….. No? Ha ha ha… I was just kidding…. Oh well thanks for the sneak peak… Tally ho and cheerio and all… thanks again….

By: Keith

Keith — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 18:27:04 +0000

Lucia, I don’t think they will heavily overcompensate. That 0.25 is still 0.08 degrees warmer than RSS and UAH are listing. But, if they come in more than a full tenth of a degree warmer than than anyone else, people will still think that they are smoking crack or cooking the books. HadCRUT is going to be the big key here, in my opinion. If they are close to RSS and UAH, then GISS will be no more than 0.10 degrees warmer than the average of the three. If HadCRUT comes in a good bit higher than the satellite temperatures, then GISS will be a little bit warmer than HadCRUT, and be able to cite that they are not out of line with another respected authority.

By: Paul Demmert

Paul Demmert — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 00:13:25 +0000

My bet is 0.47.
I’m more interested in seeing what the good Dr Hansen will say about the data mistake.
Paul

By: What is Gavin’s point about the role of models? A response from the ‘excitable’ part of the blogosphere! | The Blackboard

Tue, 11 Nov 2008 21:55:01 +0000

[...] free to guess the GISS’s future October anomaly (the one that will appear after Nov. 10.) I’ve got a brownie bet going on this!. « GISS Brownie Bet: Guess October anomaly… for [...]

By: lucia

lucia — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 21:49:22 +0000

Keith– you think they’ll over compensate? Heh!

By: Keith

Keith — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 20:47:51 +0000

I’ll take another stab. Same donation of any brownie winnings, Lucia. With the current listings of a 0.61 anomaly, given a full month to fix there data, with the entire blogosphere breathing down their necks, I’ll go with 0.25, to be relatively close to UAH and RSS. Anybody seen HadCRUT? I’d actually like to see their number. If they’re warmer than UAH or RSS, GISS will come closer to them so they can say they have support.

By: Vincent Guerrini Jr

Vincent Guerrini Jr — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 19:37:51 +0000

Lucia have you checked the source of Accuweather temp data? you may find it was in fact GISS or NCDC so NOT relaible once again. What is your issue with Satellite data? Bet 0.20C but of course thats too low for GISS! LOL

By: Jamie Dyer

Jamie Dyer — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 19:11:41 +0000

I’d like to pick 0.52 please.

By: James H

James H — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 18:37:48 +0000

I’ll take 0.35C anomaly.

By: GISS October Anomaly: Warmer than September. | The Blackboard

GISS October Anomaly: Warmer than September. | The Blackboard — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 18:33:55 +0000

[...] mishap at GISSTemp, I have proposed a brownie bet regarding the October GISSTemp anomaly. Visit Guess the future October GISSTemp anomaly. « Jared Wins the Nov 1-7 NH Ice Extent Bet. GISS Brownie Bet: Guess October anomaly… [...]

By: Chris

Chris — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 17:51:49 +0000

“Chris commenting at WUWT noticed that some of the GISS temperature data records for Northern Asia at GISS show identical readings for September and October.”

Thanks for the mention Lucia. I do believe I was the first person in the world to post about the identical readings – brownies would have been the ideal reward i think, but i’ll settle for recognition

Chris (15:57:03) :
Well that’s interesting!…………

John Goetz (16:43:06) :
Steve McIntyre at Climate Audit forwarded me an email from John S. that said:……….

By: Fred Nieuwenhuis

Fred Nieuwenhuis — Tue, 11 Nov 2008 16:53:48 +0000

Steve @ CA just posted a Statement from NASA:
2008-11-11: Most data posted yesterday were replaced by the data posted last month since it looks like some mishap might have occurred when NOAA updated their GHCN data. We will postpone updating this web site until we get confirmation from NOAA that their updating programs worked properly. Because today is a Federal Holiday, some pages are still showing yesterday’s data.