Comments on: HadCrut, GISS, NOAA Temperature Anomalies Up in July.

By: vincent Guerrini Jr

vincent Guerrini Jr — Tue, 19 Aug 2008 18:08:00 +0000

http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/

I think August 08 temps will be a great disappointment to the AGW proponents
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/
400 and 600 mb graphs

By: Syl

Syl — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 17:32:33 +0000

According to UAH, globals were up from about July 17th thru Aug 4th and were above last year, since then globals have been falling again. I’m not surprised that July’s came in higher. August may be a surprise to some folks.

By: Larry Sheldon

Larry Sheldon — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 13:31:38 +0000

“That covers…???”

I don’t understand why that isn’t clear. The current adjusted, corrected, interpreted readings didn’t show any warming, correcting, adjusting and interpreting those years fixed the problem.

By: Mike C

Mike C — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 08:45:09 +0000

I’m sorry Walter, I was addressing Lucia. I suggest you send an email to Hadley and ask about the changes earlier in the record.

By: Walter Dnes

Walter Dnes — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 07:50:53 +0000

> Mike C (Comment#5094) August 17th, 2008 at 1:24 am

> The only thing that none of these data sources tell you is that
> they are all preliminary, so ya really have to wait about 6 months.

That covers the 2008 and maybe even the 2007 data, *BUT* how do you explain 1851, 1888, 1916, 1924, and 1929???

By: Mike C

Mike C — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 07:24:57 +0000

The only thing that none of these data sources tell you is that they are all preliminary, so ya really have to wait about 6 months. They have to wait to get the records from Jester (12 pack for lunch) the Coop observer, or from deep in the Congo and etc. It was like March this year, GISS started at .68 and are now down to .6. Nevertheless, 2008 will be down from 2007 on all datasets at the end of the year so expect the fireworks to be healthy til at least 2009.

By: James H

James H — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 05:31:55 +0000

Great, another data source where the historical temperature record depends on what day you pull the data.

By: Walter Dnes

Walter Dnes — Sun, 17 Aug 2008 01:50:24 +0000

Did you notice that Hadley has been GISS-ified? There were a few changes in recent data between the May and June versions, but the changes between June and July have been GISS-like. This time they go back to 1851. The early changes (1929 and earlier) seem to be mostly cooling, and the later changes (2007 onwards) seem to be mostly warming. Is this “manmade global warming” or what? Please tell me I’m doing something wrong.

Here’s output from a “diff” that I ran between the 2 months. My weird “internal” date format goes like so…
1850.083 = 1850/Jan
1850.167 = 1850/Feb
…
1850.833 = 1850/Oct
1850.917 = 1850/Nov
1851.000 = 1850/Dec (yeah, it looks weird)

Webboards suck; bring back usenet. Because webboards interpret angle brackets as HTML commands, I edited the output using “remove” and “insert” instead of angle brackets.

18c18
remove 1851.500, -0.269
—
insert 1851.500, -0.268
465c465
remove 1888.750, -0.255
—
insert 1888.750, -0.256
803c803
remove 1916.917, -0.609
—
insert 1916.917, -0.610
888c888
remove 1924.000, -0.071
—
insert 1924.000, -0.072
950c950
remove 1929.167, -0.675
—
insert 1929.167, -0.676
1892,1894c1892,1894
remove 2007.667, 0.362
remove 2007.750, 0.410
remove 2007.833, 0.367
—
insert 2007.667, 0.370
insert 2007.750, 0.412
insert 2007.833, 0.370
1896,1897c1896,1897
remove 2008.000, 0.212
remove 2008.083, 0.054
—
insert 2008.000, 0.220
insert 2008.083, 0.050
1900c1900
remove 2008.333, 0.254
—
insert 2008.333, 0.267
1902c1902,1903
remove 2008.500, 0.314
—
insert 2008.500, 0.312
insert 2008.583, 0.403

By: kuhnkat

kuhnkat — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 22:30:45 +0000

My PO is that there is a lot of there is a lot of this going on:

http://ncwatch.typepad.com/med......html#more

By: lucia

lucia — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 21:23:04 +0000

Larry–
Hadcrut publishes uncertainties for individual monthly measurements. The ±95% interval appears to be roughly ~~0.15 C about the mean.~~ 0.08C. So, actually, you often can’t say whether the temperature really rose or fell, from one month to the next. But, you can say whether the reported reading is higher.

The values reported in July are higher than those for June. What will we get in August? Who knows?

By: Larry Sheldon

Larry Sheldon — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 21:18:23 +0000

I was trying to suggest that up or down, it might summarize to “not statistically significant”.

By: lucia

lucia — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 21:06:13 +0000

Larry–
I”m sure they are all using the same process they always use. We had an La Nina. Temperature were bound to go up.

By: Larry Sheldon

Larry Sheldon — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 20:12:23 +0000

OK, hep me out here folks.

0.091 degree difference. Is that before or after the tens of degrees of error corrections, adjustments, allowances, and insider discounts were applied?

By: lucia

lucia — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 19:00:10 +0000

Anthony had posted that UAH was up, and that NOAA posted hotter US temperatures.

Anyway, I post whatever I get. I’ve always said the temperatures will start going up at some point! The issue is how much.

By: fred

fred — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 18:29:31 +0000

Re: #5081
Nothing to do (I’m sure) with the fact that this month doesn’t fit into the global cooling meme…

Oh, and throw in an irrelevant distraction as well.

By: lucia

lucia — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 18:29:08 +0000

James– Graphic information is better for everyone. That’s actually taught in school.

By: James

James — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 18:20:01 +0000

Raw data is better than nothing, but graphic informations is good for us dummies.

By: lucia

lucia — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 17:56:29 +0000

It’s just so unusual!

I usually can’t get these posted anywhere near fast enough. I figure you run some sort of program that checks every day just so you can get them up. Otherwise, I can’t imagine how you manage to be so quick to post.

By: Anthony Watts

Anthony Watts — Sat, 16 Aug 2008 17:38:45 +0000

Yes I guess you could call it a “scoop” except that I was aware of GISS and HadCRUT being posted, but just hadn’t gotten around to putting them up yet.

Steve is busy with the disgraceful Caspar Amman saga of biased science, so he probably didn’t see it as pressing, since I usually do it.

So revel in your scoop.