Comments on: Temperature Anomaly 2008: My Prediction. http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/temperature-anomaly-2008-my-prediction/ Where Climate Talk Gets Hot! Wed, 17 Mar 2010 05:37:19 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: John Lang http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/temperature-anomaly-2008-my-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-6714 John Lang Sat, 15 Nov 2008 03:34:44 +0000 http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/temperature-anomaly-2008-my-prediction/#comment-6714 My model of GISS' annual temps says 0.513C but the year-to-date is 0.494C (changes by the minute of course) so it is a little late to add this in since I have the year-to-date ENSO and AMO numbers built in. My model of GISS’ annual temps says 0.513C but the year-to-date is 0.494C (changes by the minute of course) so it is a little late to add this in since I have the year-to-date ENSO and AMO numbers built in.

]]> By: Arthur Smith http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/temperature-anomaly-2008-my-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-3990 Arthur Smith Tue, 08 Jul 2008 02:37:42 +0000 http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/temperature-anomaly-2008-my-prediction/#comment-3990 Mosher at climateaudit was taking bets here: http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2698 -- my guess for 2008 was 0.41 degrees C (and heading up from there over the next few years...) - Lucia's 0.7 C was in that list too (and the highest of anybody's). Given the average for the first 5 months of 2008 is 0.35 so far, 0.7 for the year means an average of 0.95 for the remaining 7 months, almost 0.1 degree higher than the highest monthly anomaly ever (0.86 in January 2007). So I'm guessing it'll be a little closer to my estimate than Lucia's - you never know though! :) Mosher at climateaudit was taking bets here:

http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2698

– my guess for 2008 was 0.41 degrees C (and heading up from there over the next few years…) – Lucia’s 0.7 C was in that list too (and the highest of anybody’s). Given the average for the first 5 months of 2008 is 0.35 so far, 0.7 for the year means an average of 0.95 for the remaining 7 months, almost 0.1 degree higher than the highest monthly anomaly ever (0.86 in January 2007). So I’m guessing it’ll be a little closer to my estimate than Lucia’s – you never know though! :)

]]> By: Tilo Reber http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/temperature-anomaly-2008-my-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-3984 Tilo Reber Mon, 07 Jul 2008 23:24:21 +0000 http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/temperature-anomaly-2008-my-prediction/#comment-3984 "I predict the average temperature anomaly for 2008, as reported by GISS Land/Ocean measurements will be 0.70 ± 0.11 C. " You are a brave woman Lucia. Your lower end would be at .59 C. And so far this year, every monthly is below that. It's going to require a very hot second half to get into your range. “I predict the average temperature anomaly for 2008, as reported by GISS Land/Ocean measurements will be 0.70 ± 0.11 C. ”

You are a brave woman Lucia. Your lower end would be at .59 C. And so far this year, every monthly is below that. It’s going to require a very hot second half to get into your range.

]]> By: The Volcano Blows! Dealing with Effect of Forcing for Global Climate Change | The Blackboard http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/temperature-anomaly-2008-my-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-2696 The Volcano Blows! Dealing with Effect of Forcing for Global Climate Change | The Blackboard Sat, 10 May 2008 13:28:12 +0000 http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/temperature-anomaly-2008-my-prediction/#comment-2696 [...] I announced my prediction of the global mean surface temperature (GMST) based on GISS Land/Ocean data. My prediction based on a very simple phenomenological model [...] [...] I announced my prediction of the global mean surface temperature (GMST) based on GISS Land/Ocean data. My prediction based on a very simple phenomenological model [...]

]]> By: Niche Modeling » Global Temperatures 2008 http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/temperature-anomaly-2008-my-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-1182 Niche Modeling » Global Temperatures 2008 Tue, 18 Mar 2008 20:47:45 +0000 http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/temperature-anomaly-2008-my-prediction/#comment-1182 [...] the climate, followed by the development of the strong cooling influence of the current La Niña. lucia… the average temperature anomaly for 2008, as reported by GISS Land/Ocean measurements will [...] [...] the climate, followed by the development of the strong cooling influence of the current La Niña. lucia… the average temperature anomaly for 2008, as reported by GISS Land/Ocean measurements will [...]

]]> By: lucia http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/temperature-anomaly-2008-my-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-994 lucia Sun, 09 Mar 2008 19:32:46 +0000 http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/temperature-anomaly-2008-my-prediction/#comment-994 I model takes input from past solar activity I obtained from a file at NASA GISS. For projections, I just ran an three extrapolations forward based on recent rates of change in forcing anomalies. According to NASA, the amplitude of the solar effect is now small compared to the other effects. I model takes input from past solar activity I obtained from a file at NASA GISS. For projections, I just ran an three extrapolations forward based on recent rates of change in forcing anomalies.

According to NASA, the amplitude of the solar effect is now small compared to the other effects.

]]> By: Max http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/temperature-anomaly-2008-my-prediction/comment-page-1/#comment-992 Max Sun, 09 Mar 2008 02:34:45 +0000 http://rankexploits.com/musings/2008/temperature-anomaly-2008-my-prediction/#comment-992 How does your model handle solar activity? Solar cycle 24 has started very inactive with essentially no sunspots to date. BTW the "model" that results in 1.7C warming for a doubling of CO2 goes quite a bit further than Arrhenius and Stefan-Boltzmann. These show 0.7C for a doubling, excluding positive and negative feedbacks from increased water (as vapor, as liquid droplets in low altitude clouds or as ice crystals in high altitude clouds). Regards, Max How does your model handle solar activity?

Solar cycle 24 has started very inactive with essentially no sunspots to date.

BTW the “model” that results in 1.7C warming for a doubling of CO2 goes quite a bit further than Arrhenius and Stefan-Boltzmann. These show 0.7C for a doubling, excluding positive and negative feedbacks from increased water (as vapor, as liquid droplets in low altitude clouds or as ice crystals in high altitude clouds).

Regards,

Max

]]>