UAH Anomaly Up for September.
As usual, UAH released their anomaly for the lower troposphere promptly. The temperature anomaly rose from -0.007C in August to 0.161C in September. Here’s the effect on the trend since January 2001.
Since I’m not currently satisfied with my ability to estimate the “AR(1)+ White noise” uncertainty intervals for the satellite sets, there currently is no hypothesis test based on UAH only. However, it’s worth noting that -1.4C/century is quite a bit lower than the “about 2C/century” projected for surface temperatures. And… for those who think the looking at lower troposphere temperatures is a meaningless exercise…. yes… my readers and I all know the lower troposphere is not the surface. It’s just near the surface. 
Comments Closed: If you would like them re-opened, Contact Lucia
Comments
Fred Nieuwenhuis (Comment#5667) October 6th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
RSS is in at: 2008 9 0.060
lucia (Comment#5668) October 6th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
Fred–Where did you find that? It’s not listed at
http://www.remss.com/pub/msu/m....._v03_1.txt
But 0.60 would be down.
Fred Nieuwenhuis (Comment#5669) October 6th, 2008 at 2:49 pm
I am using the 3.2 dataset @ http://www.remss.com/pub/msu/m....._v03_2.txt
lucia (Comment#5670) October 6th, 2008 at 2:51 pm
Ok– They agree on the past.I wonder why there are two different URLs? Anyway, yours updates sooner than the one I look at! Maybe that’s why I’m constantly scooped.
Fred Nieuwenhuis (Comment#5671) October 6th, 2008 at 3:02 pm
I’m sorry Lucia, the file I attached is the Mid-Troposheric data and not the Lower troposhere (which 3.1 is the most current data). My bad. Good news is that the TLT data is there now: 2008 9 0.211
lucia (Comment#5672) October 6th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
Fred– I looked at the wrong thing. You are liking mid troposphere. But the lower troposphere is now showing too. It’s up from 0.146 to 0.211 C.
Fred Nieuwenhuis (Comment#5673) October 6th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
In future, I will try to keep the temperature data scoops to myself.
And learn to spell.
lucia (Comment#5674) October 6th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Fred– Don’t keep them to yourself. It turned out the TLT temperature was updated! It hadn’t been updated this morning. So, now I’ll be able to add it. I’ll probably post a graph tomorrow.
steven mosher (Comment#5676) October 6th, 2008 at 7:24 pm
Just ask the guy who runs this
http://www.woodfortrees.org/notes
how he updates every night at 3AM.
then modify the code.
Bob North (Comment#5679) October 6th, 2008 at 9:49 pm
Lucia – since some people seem to be real sticklers for this sort of thing, I think you should be clear that the IPCC projection for warming was “about 0.2C/decade” for the first two decades of the 21st century and that it indicated that, even if GHG emissions stayed at the 2000 emission levels, we were committed to at least 0.1C/decade. As you are aware, some have jumped all over the question of whether IPCC ever projected 2C/century. That may be an open question, but IPCC definitely projected “about 0.2C/decade” for the first couple of decades of the 21st century under all emission scenarios.
lucia (Comment#5680) October 7th, 2008 at 6:34 am
Bob–
I’m sure you’re right! I think I also need to mention that ‘about 2C/century’ is rounded down from the values in table x.x, &etc.
The fact that those who object to comparisons between the 2C/century and data are quibbling like this is telling.
Paul Clark (Comment#5767) October 10th, 2008 at 2:38 am
Steven – it’s done with smoke, mirrors, cron and wget