The Blackboard

While I am away
I can’t supervise comments
most threads have been closed.
As I mentioned two posts ago, I will be on travel. Jim is on the home front taking care of the cats / house / garden / his parents / etc. while I check on my Dad. I plan to return a week [...]

Yesterday, I commented on Gavin’s defense of AOGCM models that ’saved’ their virtue by resorting to some novel notions. Today, I will show that even if we accepted one of the sillier arguments (which, the royal “we” does not), my analysis would still indicate the model-mean trend does not match the observed trend.
Recall, [...]

Today, I’m going to discuss what failure to reject means when we apply a statistical test. In this discussion, I will be using the term “Statistical Power”.
In case you are wondering, this does have implications vis-a-vis Gavin’s critique Pat Michael’s testimony to Congress. But I will not be discussing that in detail. Instead, [...]

I’ve decided to twitter my posts. I’m currently testing Tweetsuite a plugin that does a lot of nifty Twitter – related things. Currently,that plugin is:

Posting my three most recent “tweets” in my sidebar.
Supposedly, sending a tweet announcing my posts to twitter. (This post will test that functionality.)
Letting my readers click buttons in [...]

Get a load of this hilarious exchange!.
# Chip Knappenberger Says: 25 March 2009 at 8:04
Gavin,
It is bit more complicated than one-liners can capture.
…. In other words, something else is acting to slow the trend over the past decade or so–perhaps it is something like PDO, or perhaps the models are too sensitive to the [...]

From time to time, I like to think about how to show compare simulated and observed temperatures not in the way I think “best” but using methods “most similar” to figures contained in the AR4 itself. Today, I decided it would be useful to concoct a figure that compares the observed anomalies using a [...]

After I posted the analysis comparing simulated trends with varying start years all ending now, someone suggested I perform the same analysis, but examine all 8 year trends. That is: Look at the trend from 1960-1967, 1961-1968 (all inclusive) and so on. Eight years is selected because I’ve been focusing on 2001-now [...]

The English language needs a word for when advocates on both sides of an ongoing debate switch rhetorical positions, and yet they insist on decrying the inconsistency of their opponents while overlooking their own inconsistency. [...] I don’t know of a word for this particular phenomemon, but I think we need one.
Thus spake Orin [...]

We have a contender for weirdest anti-capitalists claim of the year. The theory is expounded in two stories:1)
Climate change undermines Oxygen Producing Ecosystems which links to the even more intriguingly titled 2) Ethical Extraterrestrials, the Global Oxygen Supply and Big Oil.
Ethical Extraterrestrials?!
Key features of the theory:

Oxygen is being [...]

Where are they all today, those bed-wetting moaning Minnies of the Apocalyptic Traffic-Light Tendency–those Greens too yellow to admit they’re really Reds?
So it began, Lord Christopher Monckton, Viscount of Brenchley’s colorful keynote speech at Heartland. Here’s are the highlights:
“.. bed-wetting moaning Minnies of the Apocalyptic Traffic-Light Tendency [...] Greens too yellow to admit they’re [...]