The Blackboard

I’ve done some computations, and I’m no longer sure I can tell the difference between the behavior of hurricane experts and monkeys!
My uncertainty about my inability to distinguish hurricane experts from monkeys is the fruit of a computationally intensive calculation inspired by a long conversation that began with
Inexpert Elicitation by RMS on Hurricanes, by [...]

Believe it or not, the purpose of this post is to show this figure and respond to some odd claims in comments at other blogs.
The figure above compares the running 12 month averages temperature anomalies in C for all runs in all models used in the IPCC and available at The Climate Explorer and [...]

If you love climate blog wars you’ll want to see this graph
Notice that the trend in surface temperatures from January 2001-December is positive; the trend from Jan 2008 to March 2009 is positive. Yet…. “mysteriously”… the trend from January 2001 to March 2009 is negative.
Go figure!?
So, what does amazing event [...]

Chad at Scientific Prospective emailed with a hypothesis:
…So I came up with the hypothesis that the models apparently are over predicting warming because what we are comparing them to do not adequately account for the temperature in polar regions, where warming supposedly should be amplified.
Here’s my plan: HadCM3 has higher spatial resolution than HadCrut, [...]

I phoned Dad in Florida and told him the weatherman is forecasting snow. As usual, Dad reported he remains pleased with his decision to move to Sarasota, FL. He also told me he spent the day swimming.
I’m hoping the snow does not arrive, but the outlook does not look promising. Snow is falling on [...]

Deep Climate sure likes to come up with his own idiosyncratic methods of computing trends for the earth’s surface temperature!
In comment 12745, Deep introduced the notion that we could learn something by noticing that 20 year average trends have been increasing. I pointed out that I was aware they are increasing, but at [...]

People use search terms
to find the content they seek.
A few end up here!
 

This is an open thread. But I figured it would be fun to mention the top and most unexpected search terms that have brought visitors to my blog since Dec 1, 2008.
Top three search terms & number:

lucia blackboard (1095), the blackboard (545), lucia [...]

In comments, it appears Deep Climate wants us to compare the current trends to the stated trend in Table 10.5 in the AR4.
Slight correction to my previous comment: I was confusing the A2 and A1B scenario IPCC projections. The former is 0.66 C (0.21/decade) to 2030 and the latter is 0.69 C (0.22/decade). The [...]

HadCrut 3 reported their March anomaly. Here are their current values for the past two months:
2009/02 0.356
2009/03 0.359
You can see how these relate to previous temperatures in the figure below:
I’ve circled the March values in the figure above, you can see March is just a tiny bit warmer than February.
The big question for next month: Will [...]

In comments,Andrew_FL ask me to plot the trends since 1979 and the 20 year trends for HadCrut. I was going to wait until HadCrut updated…. but then I decided one month won’t make much difference. Here are the trends from 1979-”Year” for HadCrut, NOAA, GISSTemp compared to the trend based on 16 AOCGMs [...]