The Blackboard

Shhhssss… Don’t tell anyone. But I like to read the Viscounts writing just to learn new words.
I finally got around to reading Monckton’s August report at SPPI. I was disappointed to discover it contained only one unfamiliar word! That word is:
“seriatim“: “Latin for “in series,” is a legal term typically used to [...]

Exploring the solution
Arthur, Nick and I all now seem to agree that the solution method to map a two-box model regressions parameters into parameters appearing in the expression of the first and 2nd law of thermodynamics will involves 3 free parameters. That is: there are 3 more unknowns than equations. This occurred because some [...]

Recently, Roger Pielke Jr. commented on Michael Tobis’s views of how the scientific process works. Roger suggests Michael’s view is evidence of tribalism in science. Let’s take a look at what Michael has to say:
No scientist really knows everything he or she claims to know from direct experience. Most of what we [...]

First: The purpose of this post is to show the regression to the “Tamino two-box” model provides sufficient information to fully specify “the two-box model”. I’m doing it because Arthur says there is not sufficient information. If you are math averse, feel free to skip to comment and simply discuss simple models as we have [...]

For those who are interested in Chad’s comparisons of models to data, Chad has moved to Trees for the Forest. He is continuuing to compute predictions for temperature of the troposphere from AOGCMS used in the AR4.

This post is intended to describe my conceptual idea of one might relate the constants Nick, Arthur and Tamino obtain by regressing time series for the earth’s surface to forcings from a GISS temp file. It’s a bit fuzzy, and may contain typos/ algebra errors etc. My goal is to illustrate the basic outline [...]

Glorious August.
Browneyed susans golden blooms
brighten the garden.
 
Note to newbies: Haikus are open threads.

In a recent post, Tamino fit time series data for global temperature to applied forcings using a statistical model which he described as being based on a “two-box model”. Tamino characterized the specific two-box model underlying his statistical model in these words:
Hence in addition to simple regression models, I’ll also use a two-box model [...]

The Wall Street Journal blog reports on the Houston Anti-Waxman/Markey rally. The WSJ reports:
The rally, carefully orchestrated by the American Petroleum Institute and other organizations, is part of a 19-state campaign that seeks to stir opposition against the Waxman-Markey climate bill while Senators on their summer break take the ideological pulse of their constituents.
The rallies [...]

Guess what? NOAA made some changes in their Global Land and Ocean Data set. The monthly anomalies are now available at NOAA Land/Ocean; the new ReadMe File says:
In July 2009, NCDC transitioned to the use of an improved Global Land and Ocean data set (Smith et al., 2008) which allows better analysis of temperatures [...]