El Nino Betting Pool: ASO NINO 3.4 Average.
The data required to compute the “ASO” average El Nino bets are now in. As readers recall, at first I was going to wait for NOAA to publish the value. But when someone found the weekly values, I decreed that the rules were that I would compute my own ASO average based on the weekly values posted at ” Weekly SST data starts week centered on 3Jan1990″. So, my values aren’t the “official values”; they are the “betting pool result”.
The method of computation is: I compute the “betting pool ASO average Nino 3.4 SST anomaly” over all weeks containing even a single day included in August/September/October, weighting by number of days in that span of time.
This means I computed as follows:
| Date 29-Jul-09 5-Aug-09 12-Aug-09 19-Aug-09 26-Aug-09 2-Sep-09 9-Sep-09 16-Sep-09 23-Sep-09 30-Sep-09 7-Oct-09 14-Oct-09 21-Oct-09 28-Oct-09 |
Nino SSTA 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.5 |
Days 1 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 |
Product 0.8 5.6 4.9 4.9 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 5.6 4.9 4.9 6.3 7.7 10.5 |
| Total | 92 | 81.3 |
ASO Average NINO 3.4 average= 0.8837C
Here’s what you all bet:
| Name | Prediction (C) | Bet |
| Geoff Larsen | 0.729 | 5 |
| Robert Leyland | -0.3 | 3 |
| Gerard | 0.8 | 3 |
| Michael Jennings | 0.5 | 3 |
| Pieter | 0.8 | 4 |
| Cassanders | 0.85 | 3 |
| Adam | 0.9 | 5 |
| Andrew Kennett | 0.6 | 1 |
| Pavel Panenka | 1 | 2 |
| Bill Illis | 0.82 | 5 |
| Bob D | 0.738 | 4.3 |
| Paul Demmert | 0.755 | 4 |
| Michael Hauber | 0.971 | 5 |
| Boris | 0.904 | 5 |
| YFNWG | 0.65 | 3 |
| B Buckner | 0.7 | 5 |
| Tim | 0.785 | 4 |
| Niels A Nielsen | 0.599 | 5 |
| Joel Heinrich | 0.7 | 4 |
| Chuck L | -0.687 | 4 |
| George Tobin | 0.8 | 4 |
| ed | 0.55 | 2 |
| Annette Bouvier | 0.7 | 1 |
| Lance Appleby | 0.314 | 2 |
| groundhunter | 0.698 | 1 |
| Lucia | 0.6 | 3 |
| Predictions shown in reverse chronological order. | ||
I’ll run the script to distribute Quatloos after you all have a chance to scan through and see how you did!
Meanwhile, NOAA published their monthly discussion. Look at the spread in the projections from models:
None of the model predict negative NINO 3.4 SSTAs before JJA. But other than that, they sure are all over the place! Given the spread in projections, it might be fun to run a longer term JFM 2010 (January, February, March) Quatloo bets.
Written by lucia.Comments Closed: If you would like them re-opened, Contact Lucia
Comments
Bob D (Comment#23131) November 5th, 2009 at 8:10 pm
I’m very disappointed I didn’t win – Quatloos aren’t easy to come by you know. I was planning on using my winnings to buy a billion carbon credits. Ah well.
Adolfo Giurfa (Comment#23151) November 6th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
As I said many times in other posts elsewhere: Nobody ask us, the parents of the kid (El Nino).
El Nino happends when the so named warm current goes southward and the Humboldt´s cold current backwards, so waters along the northern pacific coasts of Peru warm up. This is NOT happening now. What it is happening now is that the cold Humboldt´s current has resurfaced:
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
As inconvenientely forecasted by UN´s FAO, contradicting UN´s IPCC:
http://www.giurfa.com/fao_temps.jpg
Where it can be seen we are way down until 2020.
MikeC (Comment#23212) November 7th, 2009 at 7:15 pm
Woooooah there missy… I got the whole quatloo thingy started with my prediction of .9 and u left me off the list???? You’re going into the harbor with the tea!!!!
lucia (Comment#23214) November 7th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
MikeC–Did your wager the lost? I need to know that sort of thing!
MikeC (Comment#23215) November 7th, 2009 at 8:24 pm
Lucia, you know I bet the house, the car, the dog and the water in the pool… especially since the numbers are out on the ONI web site…. .9 wooooooo hoooooo I win, but it looks like I split it with Adam
Adam (Comment#23216) November 7th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
MikeC,
So I take the house and the car, you take the dog?!
MikeC (Comment#23217) November 7th, 2009 at 9:30 pm
Adam, since the house is up side down on it’s sub prime loan and the car smokes and cannot get a smog certificate… and since I love my little Neffie… DEAL!!! But what about the water from the pool? Summer is over and the drought has broken so it’s useless.
MikeC (Comment#23218) November 7th, 2009 at 9:33 pm
Oh… and you can keep any Watloos… word has it they were a cheap copy job from the Chicago mob and have been widely distributed… there is even a rumor that some lady named Lucia got kicked out of Chip’n Dales for tipping the dancers with them.