October UAH Bets and Winners!
October’s Temperature Anomaly has been reported by Dr. Roy Spencer: According to UAH, the temperature anomaly for the troposphere dropped from +0.422C to +0.284C. Needless to say, my method of betting the average Channel 5 reading when bets close continues its losing streak! But other betters did quite well, with “Swift” gettting the correct value to three significant figures. Wow!
| Rank | Name | Prediction (C) | Bet | Won | |
| Gross | Net | ||||
| -- | Observed | (C) | |||
| 1 | Swift | 0.284 | 5 | 69.758 | 64.758 |
| 2 | Chuck L | 0.274 | 3 | 33.484 | 30.484 |
| 3 | Joel Heinrich | 0.298 | 4 | 35.716 | 31.716 |
| 4 | MikeP | 0.3 | 5 | 35.716 | 30.716 |
| 5 | Mark Smith | 0.3 | 3 | 17.144 | 14.144 |
| 6 | Robert Leyland | 0.254 | 2 | 4.182 | 2.182 |
| 7 | Jorge | 0.317 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 8 | hempster | 0.25 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 9 | John Knapp | 0.32 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 10 | Lance Appleby | 0.243 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 11 | Ryan O | 0.237 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 12 | Pieter | 0.342 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 13 | Rob Waldie | 0.22 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 14 | Kåre Kristiansen | 0.22 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 15 | David L. Hagen | 0.349 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 16 | Neven | 0.35 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| 17 | Diego Cruz | 0.205 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 18 | Greg Meurer | 0.372 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| 19 | John F. Pittman | 0.372 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 20 | Denis | 0.38 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| 22 | Blue Sky | 0.38 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 23 | Hal | 0.382 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 24 | Dudley Robertson | 0.387 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| 25 | Brendan Bouffler | 0.18 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 26 | Francis | 0.389 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 27 | LeeW | 0.389 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 28 | Peter Thompson | 0.39 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 29 | George Tobin | 0.395 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 30 | jack mosevich | 0.4 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 31 | rob r | 0.4 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 32 | Michael Hauber | 0.404 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 33 | colin Aldridge | 0.41 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 34 | Ed S | 0.42 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 35 | Jeff Id | 0.42 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 36 | TerryMN | 0.42 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 37 | B Buckner | 0.421 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 40 | Marcus | 0.432 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| 41 | Niels A Nielsen | 0.443 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 42 | Andrew Kennett | 0.45 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 43 | Les Johnson | 0.45 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 44 | steve | 0.456 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 45 | Pavel Panenka | 0.465 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 47 | Zeke | 0.47 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 48 | SamuelJ | 0.482 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| 49 | Cassanders | 0.487 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 50 | Tim Walkowski | 0.489 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 51 | lucia | 0.5 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 52 | Tom Harrah | 0.51 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 53 | Adam | 0.511 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 54 | Laws of Nature | 0.532 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 55 | edward | 0.533 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| 56 | Paul Demmert | 0.57 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 57 | Erick WOdarz | -0.1 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 58 | Carlo | -0.127 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 61 | David Gould | 4.87 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
The net winnings for each member of the ensemble will be added to their accounts.
Congratulations to all who won Quatloos! Tell us what you plan to spend your winnings on!
Written by lucia.Comments Closed: If you would like them re-opened, Contact Lucia
Comments
jeff id (Comment#23144) November 6th, 2009 at 11:56 am
Well that stinks .
No Quatloos!! I’ll be back with an improved strategy.
Can anyone loan me a few.
Tim Walkowski (Comment#23145) November 6th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
. . .I will gladly give you Quatloos Tuesday for a hamburger today!
Simon Evans (Comment#23146) November 6th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
But Lucia, how do you know that this is correct data? (Just kidding!)
lucia (Comment#23147) November 6th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Simon–
I’m sure we can grill Roy! Actually, I’ve noticed that, from time to time, the channel 5 AMSU reads -999. Why doesn’t Roy post an explanation for each of those? What is he trying to hide? How can we trust UAH if anything associated with UAH ever posts a -999?!!!!
lucia (Comment#23148) November 6th, 2009 at 1:16 pm
JeffId–
I think David Gould may deserve a prize for putting it all on the line with a 4.87 C!
(I may need to tweak the script to set miminim and maximum values. I’m pretty sure David meant to bet 0.487, which would have beat my bet.)
Andrew_KY (Comment#23149) November 6th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
“Why doesn’t Roy post an explanation for each of those? What is he trying to hide?”
Maybe you should ask him.
Andrew
George Tobin (Comment#23150) November 6th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
I would like to point out that (1) my pick was almost exactly the median pick which means that The Consensus c’est moi and thus I cannot be wrong and (2) there was no place on the entry form to indicate error ranges and mine are pretty substantial.
Chuck L (Comment#23169) November 6th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
I’m thinking of spending my quatloos on a reputedly very cute creature called a “tribble” or buying a case of Saurian brandy.
lucia (Comment#23171) November 6th, 2009 at 5:18 pm
ChuckL–Tribbles are very cute!
Robert L (Comment#23172) November 6th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
With my my winnings and $2 I can buy a cup of coffee
jeff id (Comment#23190) November 6th, 2009 at 10:08 pm
Beep!
kuhnkat (Comment#23199) November 7th, 2009 at 1:44 am
““Swift” gettting the correct value to three significant figures.”
Has anyone seen “Swift” and Dr. Spencer in the same room together??
HMMM???
lucia (Comment#23201) November 7th, 2009 at 8:14 am
Kuhkat–
Swift and Spencer both start with “S”. Maybe that’s a clue too!
TerryMN (Comment#23202) November 7th, 2009 at 10:37 am
Just what I need… another credit card balance!
schnoerkelman (Comment#23203) November 7th, 2009 at 11:55 am
Rather wildly off topic but I don’t think it will matter much here…
I notice that Bender (others too?) seems quite fond of your BigBoyPants expression and I thought that perhaps either you or one of your creative consultants here could/should come up with a BigBoyPants coffee mug or tee shirt thingy to sell — Christmas time is coming and I’m sure there are “many” who could use a set.
bob
lucia (Comment#23205) November 7th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Heh! I wish I had a friend with wild graphic artist skillzzz. That could be pretty funny.
Simon Evans (Comment#23207) November 7th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
Why can’t Lucia come up with the BigBoyPants themselves? She could knit them.
Simon Evans (Comment#23208) November 7th, 2009 at 3:04 pm
Actually, Lucia, in the UK you’ll realise that ‘pants’ refers to underwear, and thus the phrase ‘Big Boy Pants’ might be thought to refer to, ahem, the scale of endowment, so to speak, rather than being grown up. This might seem problematic, on the other hand there would be a lot less knitting involved and I reckon ‘Lucia’s Big Boy Pants’ would sell very well through certain discreet outlets.
lucia (Comment#23209) November 7th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
Simon–
The term “big boy pants” is used during toilet training. Boys graduate from diapers (i.e. nappies) to “big boy pants”. So, big boy pants are underwear.
Simon Evans (Comment#23210) November 7th, 2009 at 3:36 pm
Lucia,
Ah, ok. Gosh, the cross-cultural learning that happens on this blog!
Yarmy (Comment#23219) November 8th, 2009 at 6:28 am
‘Pants’ is also British slang for abject/worthless/rubbish.
E.g. “This tree ring proxy study is absolute pants.”
Zeke Hausfather (Comment#23249) November 9th, 2009 at 12:53 pm
I wonder if we could classify betters as “warmers”, “lukewarmers”, and “coolers” and tease out any ideological effects in the last few months of bets. Not that there necessarily should be any, given that weather is weather and all, but it would be fun to check.
lucia (Comment#23250) November 9th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
Zeke–
I may eventually be able to sort finding each person’s average bet. I’m not sure it will tell us much until we have 12 bets under our belts.