Comments on: RSS Temperature Anomaly Down to 0.075C

By: Meet the man who has exposed the great climate change con trick « Preventing Attacks

Sat, 11 Jul 2009 17:18:23 +0000

[...] Lucia actually expected RSS to climb and has an analysis here [...]

By: VG

VG — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 08:13:21 +0000

Just looking at this graph,
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/s.....Extent.png
I reckon 2008 will be similar to 2006

By: James Mayeau

James Mayeau — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 17:48:43 +0000

And the number one real world effect of a lower June RSS number is -

My trick knee is acting up like crazy.

Thank you. You’ve been a great audience, don’t forget to tip your waitress.

By: RSS Global Temperature for June 09, also down « Watts Up With That?

RSS Global Temperature for June 09, also down « Watts Up With That? — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 17:30:21 +0000

[...] Lucia actually expected RSS to climb and has an analysis here [...]

By: lucia

lucia — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 17:06:32 +0000

hmmmm–
I showed UAH for the entire period here:

http://rankexploits.com/musing.....-negative/

I vary time periods displayed from post to post. RSS and UAH are in rough agreement over the full period.

By: lucia

lucia — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 16:23:07 +0000

David–
I think he’s going to still like M=15 next year (this year isn’t warm, but it also isn’t cold.) El Nino is hitting, and even if it’s mild, Rahmstorf won’t feel the need to switch to M=17 in 2011; in fact, he’ll be wishing he could go back to M=11.

If he’s still testing the TAR in 2012, and the temperatures don’t warm enough, I think he may jump from M=15 to M=18 in one fell swoop. That will put beginning of the linear extrapolation used to guess future data right back into the temperature dip caused by Pinatubo. That’s what expanding these filters is doing.

By: David Jay

David Jay — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 14:57:14 +0000

2) Rahmstorf has to go to M=16

By: hmmmm

hmmmm — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 14:03:57 +0000

Lucia,
Do you provide similar analyses for the entire sattelite period?

By: Edward

Edward — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 13:51:06 +0000

3) Gavin Schmidt interviews for a postion as a financial statistical modeler with AIG.

By: James Mayeau

James Mayeau — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 06:37:06 +0000

4} still not low enough for Michael Mann to admit Viking settlement of Greenland during what most of the world mistakenly used to refer to as the Medieval Warm Period. (not really an effect since nothing changed – probably shouldn’t be on this list – who let that cat in here?)

By: James Mayeau

James Mayeau — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 06:30:54 +0000

5} Prof James Hansen revises estimate of Waxman-Markey bill from monsterous absurdity to villianous asininity.

By: James Mayeau

James Mayeau — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 06:16:07 +0000

6} Proof positive that the Apollo moon landings were filmed on a set in Arizona.

By: James Mayeau

James Mayeau — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 06:13:19 +0000

7} Al Gore downgrades moral urgency of the war on CO2 – now placed third behind the war on Capitalism, and war on healthcare, but still a smidgeon above killing Nazis.

By: James Mayeau

James Mayeau — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 03:37:57 +0000

Thought of another one.
8} thirty six days since last 7/11 Slurpie Machine break down.

By: James Mayeau

James Mayeau — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 03:25:08 +0000

How about a top ten list:
Real world effects of a lower June RSS number -

10} Popcicle is statisticly a little less runny.

9} Head freeze kicks in 0.075 sec sooner after biting.

8} ok I only had the popcicle thing.
Feel free to fill in the last eight.

By: James Mayeau

James Mayeau — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 03:14:46 +0000

Does this mean you are moving toward the chilly side of lukewarm?

By: lucia

lucia — Fri, 10 Jul 2009 02:41:05 +0000

Terry–Yes. That’s what happens when I try to type fast so I have a chance to beat Anthony as the “first” to report anything.

By: Terry

Terry — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 23:26:34 +0000

This RSS temperature is warmer than 0.063C recorded in June 2009,

Hi Lucia – did you mean June 2008 in that sentence?

By: Walter Dnes

Walter Dnes — Thu, 09 Jul 2009 22:15:59 +0000

As per my Comment#15200) June 24th, 2009 at 11:40 pm

Initial (raw) projections, and slopes
Hadley 0.385; 0.407
GISS 0.40; 0.602
RSS 0.113; 0.922

delta = 0.075 – 0.113 = -0.038
Hadley and GISS projections for June are as follows…

Hadley
====
0.385 – 0.038 * 0.407 / 0.922 = 0.368

GISS
===
0.40 – 0.038 * 0.602 / 0.922 = 0.38

To repeat
Hadley 0.368
GISS 0.38

Checked and re-checked umpteen times, because I have this weird tendancy to make typos such as “Gadley and HISS”. I hesitate to stick my neck out with a prediction that puts Hadley almost equal to GISS. But then my regression would be useless if I had to hand adjust it all the time. Either it works or it doesn’t, and this will be an acid test for it.