The Blackboard:

Recently, Gavin at Real Climate suggested that the IPCC projections don’t falsify. He also explained the reasons he thinks they do not.
Today, I will explain that the IPCC projections do indeed falsify in any sense that is meaningful. But, you don’t think so, I think I will demonstrate you must also think […]

Over at Climate Audit, Steve Mosher has been showing readers who Model E hindcasts HadCrut data. He suggested I show how “Lumpy” hindcasts. And, as we’ve been discussing trying to tease out time constants using assumptions made by Schwartz in his 2007, I thought I’d show you the method I’d really prefer to […]

In my most recent post,, I noted that the current empirical estimate of the time constant given by Schwartz, Scafetta and in my earlier blog post is roughly 8 ±2 years. However, I also noted that Schwartz admitted uncertainties in the method itself. We all discussed a range of difficulties […]

One sign of an important paper is to count the number of immediate responses. By that measure, Schwartz 2007 “Heat capacity, time constant and sensitivity of the Earth’s climate system ” appears to have made quite an impact.
The impact is not surprising as this paper represents the relatively rare attempts to […]

Today, once again, I will show that Dr. Pielke Sr. is correct:
Spatial variations in the Global Mean Surface Temperature do contribute to leading order to the anomalous radiative balance of the earth.
Why am I writing my third post on this?
Because, in response to my second post, a vistor in comments suggested that mine analysis […]

Yesterday, I announced my prediction of the global mean surface temperature (GMST) based on GISS Land/Ocean data. My prediction based on a very simple phenomenological model of climate with two parameters: time constant τ and inverse heat capacity α. I haven’t knocked all the kinks out of data analysis, but I made the […]