The Blackboard

AndyW wanted to know the difference between brownies and cookies. I made a batch of brownies so he could see.
Step 0: Take four eggs out of the fridge and let them come to room temperature. This can take a while. Think about how delicious the brownies will be.
Step 1: Melt 4 oz. unsweetened [...]

Martin kindly collected all the bets in comments, and I made them into a kewl graph! Here’s everyone’s bet:
I also downloaded the range of bets and super-imposed them on the current status of the NH Sea Ice Extent as tallied by JAXA::
My purple box is approximate– I slapped that on by eye. Still… guys…. [...]

This is from Taylor and Gekler’s (2007). (Power Point Presentation.)
The graph prediction index vs. climate prediction skill is also interesting.

It’s generally dangerous to try to conclude too much from power point presentations. I can’t help but wonder, how does “J. Murphy” even know the absolute predictive skill in the earth’s climate sensitivity? Does Murphy know [...]

Have you been following the great “SE vs. SD” debate in comments at Climate Audit? It’s discussed in several threads related to “Santer17″. (See 1, 2 etc.) Are you wondering what it all means?
Two issues were debated in comments:

When testing models for consistency with observational data, did Santer17 use SE or SD?
Which parameter [...]

After Steve McIntyre established that equation (12) Santer17 (pdf ) does not contain a typo, I decided to apply the paired t-test in Santer17 section 4.2 to test two hypotheses; both are similar in form to the one Santer17 refers to as “H2″. My tests however, relate to Global Mean Surface Temperature [...]

HadCrut3 Data
HadCrut GMST data are in: September was cooler than August. If you view the recent HadCrut3(NH+SH) update, you will see they report September as cooler than August. The respective anomalies are 0.385C and 0.376C. This would lead us to conclude the HadCrut September anomaly is down relative to August.
But is it? [...]

On Monday, Roger Pielke Jr. alerted me to the 17 author paper Santer et. al (2008). Yesterday, I downloaded the pdf and gave it a quick look. This paper presents the results of a statistical test comparing the consistency of modeled and observed temperature trends in the tropical troposphere; the paper was recently discussed by [...]

William Chapman of The Cryosphere Today posted their results for the JAS NH Sea Ice Extent : 6.20727 Million square km. The winner is…..Steve Mosher! You can see the distribution of bets, and the “high/low” ranges based on a Cochrane-Orcutt fit below:
Oddly enough, if we round to 3 significant figures, the [...]

I decided I should bite the bullet and bet. Voila:
My method is unsophisticated (to say the least.) Here it is:
First based on the trend for Nov 1-7, I would estimate the ice extent would be 8.631E+06 square km. However, I also know the sea ice recovered briskly. So, I checked the trend for [...]

Here is a graph showing who has bet so far:

The figure shown above will be updated on the actual “Ice Recovery Brownie Bet” post. The mystery numbers after each bettor’s name indicates the comment number and whether this is that person’s first entry or second entry etc.
Michael requested a chance to change [...]