The Blackboard:

One sign of an important paper is to count the number of immediate responses. By that measure, Schwartz 2007 “Heat capacity, time constant and sensitivity of the Earth’s climate system ” appears to have made quite an impact.
The impact is not surprising as this paper represents the relatively rare attempts to […]

Atmoz proposed a bet on the summer sea ice extent and placed his best at 7.7 million km^2, using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression on data from 1950 to last year. This means he is predicting the ice will be well above last years record low of 5.557 million km^2.
I […]

NASA’s Earth Observatory News announced the PDO has entered a cool phase, thought to enhance the effects of La Ninos and diminish those of El Nino. I snagged the larger NASA image of sea surface temperatures for April 14–21, 2008and highlighted the cool spot caused by the PDO and the cool spot caused by […]

I haven’t taken any “pre-peeks”, but it occurred to me that, since Global Warming predicts surface warming with stratospheric cooling, it might be useful if I also run tests on the stratosphere. I found the NOAA page with
MSU and RSS data.
As I’d like to look at as much data as possible and compare to stated […]

Recently, David Stockwell has been discussing Rahmstorf et al 2007, focusing on how accounting for uncertainty in the data would affect interpretation of the IPCC TAR predictions relative to data. David has been focusing on issues related to the end points; today I want to discuss something much simpler. How does the uncertainty […]

Anthony Watts David Smith cracked me up with new word:
Also, I am a “lukewarmer” who thinks that the world is warmer than it would otherwise be due to anthropogenic gases (but doubts that the impact will be extreme).
Though I dislike argument-by-name calling, I tend to like new words. It does seem to […]

Anthony Watts recently posted an interesting observation: The seasonally adjusted CO2 concentration measured at Manau Loa dropped two months in a row. He illustrated this with a graphic available at NOAA which shows a two month drop in the seasonally adjusted values of CO2. Needless to say, “some”, have jumped all over this […]

Issues and Resolutions:
My recent falsification of the IPCC AR4 projection of 2C/century was criticized as flawed because:

It did not properly account for ENSO.
Cochrane-Orcutt, and its uncertainty bands apply only when the noise is AR(1).

I have addressed both issues (details below), and find the falsification still holds. It is important to note that this falsification […]

Nature Geoscience published a letter to the editor by Roger Pielke Jr.; the title is Climate predictions and observations. In his letter, Roger included a graphic illustrating IPCC temperature and sea level changes from the first through fourth assessement reports, and compared those to data.

Roger made some brief observations about the comparison, and […]

My blog philosophy is to consider all possible physical explanations for the data we are examining, and see whether or not they seem to explain the data. As many know, climatologists tell us that much of variability in global mean surface temperature is driven by the ENSO cycle (i.e. the El Nino/La Nina […]