The Blackboard

In a previous post, I reported trend analysis of the difference between GISSTemp observations and the model mean projection for surface temperatures from simulation from IPCC models extended into the 21st century using the A1B scenario tell us we should reject the hypothesis that the model mean simulation agrees with the observations reported by [...]

Did you know you can cherry pick without knowing it? It works like this:

You speculate there “some trees” are temperature proxies, but “other trees aren’t. (So far, you’re actually ok.)
Then, instead of trying to do a real calibration study to discover what sorts of trees are temperature proxies and which aren’t, you just [...]

Recently, Chip Knappenberger commented on some cherry picking by both Richard Lindzen and the fellows over at RC. Roger commented. I’m posting to add my two cents, focusing on two points:

Observing that RC may have mixed an apples to oranges comparisons into their cherry pie.
Evaluating a suggestion by Gavin’s that [...]

Have you been following the Douglas vs. Santer bout? Do you remember the blog controversies that asked “Why did Santer stop analysis at December 1999 when Douglas ran analyses through 2004?” Have you been hoping someone would get TLT data we can compare to UAH and RSS? (Yes, I mean you VG.)
Well, Chad decided [...]

El Niño is still present, but it hasn’t yet turned into the “El Niño of the Baskervilles” one might have worried about based on Joe Romm’s rather excited prose earlier this summer. This is the introduction from NOAA’s latest monthly update with some bits highlighted:
A weak El Niño continued during August 2009, as sea [...]

Arthurs Case 2
In comments, Arthur requested I post my graph of the ocean and air temperatures obtained by integrating his “Case 2″ so we could compare our graphs. To permit comparison, he also posted his graphs of ocean and air temperature obtained integrating his “Case 2″ data using a different method. (In that [...]

I was wanted to show graphs illustrating the temperature series for the “atmosphere” and “ocean” for
Arthur’s “Case 1″ & “Case 2″ solutions, which he says correspond to a 2 box model that he deems a reasonable representation of the earth’s atmosphere. Round off error was causing me some difficulties; but Arthur kindly provided [...]

We’ve been plowing through algebra, but today, I’m going to show a subset of results for some two-box models. I say subset because a) the total number of possible two-box models are infinite. One may, after all, specify an infinite value for the parameters (αs, αs, γs) and partition the forcing any way one likes. [...]

First: The purpose of this post is to show the regression to the “Tamino two-box” model provides sufficient information to fully specify “the two-box model”. I’m doing it because Arthur says there is not sufficient information. If you are math averse, feel free to skip to comment and simply discuss simple models as we have [...]

This post is intended to describe my conceptual idea of one might relate the constants Nick, Arthur and Tamino obtain by regressing time series for the earth’s surface to forcings from a GISS temp file. It’s a bit fuzzy, and may contain typos/ algebra errors etc. My goal is to illustrate the basic outline [...]