The Blackboard

In my most recent post, I discussed hypothetical weather trends over the upcoming 5, 8 or 10 years that could, falsify the consensus position of climate chance, should they occur. In this post, I’ll discuss how I came up with the numbers statistics.
The steps to coming up with numerical values require me to:

Identify a [...]

In January, Roger Pielke Jr. asked
What behavior of the climate system could hypothetically be observed over the next 1, 5, 10 years that would be inconsistent with the current consensus on climate change?
Meanwhile, Gavin Schmidt explained that we really can’t look at short-term weather to assess models. While Gavin’s answer is perfectly correct , [...]

Today, once again, I will show that Dr. Pielke Sr. is correct:
Spatial variations in the Global Mean Surface Temperature do contribute to leading order to the anomalous radiative balance of the earth.
Why am I writing my third post on this?
Because, in response to my second post, a vistor in comments suggested that mine analysis [...]

However, the absence of influence of old data in the case of climate models will be impossible to prove, so I still think we have to insist that climate models accurately forecast future states of the atmosphere
So says W.M. Briggs; I agree. Quite honestly, despite the often contentious debates over the accuracy of climate [...]

In my previous post, I discussed a Global Climate Change Blog Kerfuffle over the IPCC’s equation describing the radiative balance. The Kerfuffle involves one of the conclusions Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. reported in a recent peer reviewed article and two blog posts. .
Dr. Pielke’s fuller point is rather arcane and [...]

There appears to be a Global Climate Change Blog Kerfuffle over the IPCC’s equation describing the radiative balance of the planet. At his blog, and in a peer reviewed article, Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. discussed several perplexing issues related to using Global Mean Surface Temperature Anomalies to understand changes in the heat [...]

It’s been snowing all day. I was thinking of bundling up to shovel, when someone at Climate Audit posted a link to ‘Minnesottan’s for Global Warming:’

Too funny. Now, time to bundle up and shovel the driveway.

In some comment thread at Climate Audit, Willis Eschenbach estimated the sensitivity of Hansen’s GISS II model by fitting a straight line to the data. I commented, that, at least if the climate behaved like a simple lumped parameter “thing”, that fit would give misleading results for the sensitivity of Hansen’s GISS model. [...]

I thought I’d announce my prediction for the temperature anomaly for 2008. I predict the average temperature anomaly for 2008, as reported by GISS Land/Ocean measurements will be 0.70 ± 0.11 C.
The ±0.11C is my hookey claim for the standard error. That means if my model is halfway decent, there is roughly a 2/3 [...]

I came up with a simple empirical model to estimate climate sensitivity based on a global mean surface temperature record and estimated values of climate forcing. Using Land-Ocean GMST values from NASA GISS, I obtain a climate sensitivity of 1.7 C. This is below the range of climate sensitivity predicted by most [...]