The Blackboard:

My blog philosophy is to consider all possible physical explanations for the data we are examining, and see whether or not they seem to explain the data. As many know, climatologists tell us that much of variability in global mean surface temperature is driven by the ENSO cycle (i.e. the El Nino/La Nina [...]

The current status of the falsification of the IPCC AR4 projection of 2 C/century is: Falsified. I first discussed this falsification in IPCC Projections Overpredict Recent Warming. That discussion included some caveats. I have been addressing criticisms as they arise. Today, I am addressing a discussion by Tamino, who decided to reanalyze the existing [...]

ATMOZ’ recently posted an interesting analysis that explains why one must always be aware of the properties of weather when doing statistics. I agree with that. I would go further. I would say one must always be aware of the properties of any underlying phenomena when doing statistics.
More specifically, ATMOZ suggested that maybe [...]

William Connolley seems to be having a little trouble understanding how one can apply statistics to a set consisting of a time series with many data pairs, and then state a range for climate trends that are consistent with the noisy data.
As it happens it’s easy using standard statistical techniques applied to data [...]

In my previous post, I showed the IPCC projections from the AR4 are inconsistent with Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) measurements collected since the time the IPCC projections were first published. To support that claim, I performed a linear regression, correcting for serial autocorrelation in the residuals, using a “Cochrane-Orcutt”, a standard method.
Specifically, I [...]

Today, I’m going to try to apply Cochrane-Orcutt a method that could be used to deal with serial autocorrelation in residuals to a linear regression. I hadn’t done this before, so I hunted down some references, and read how it’s supposed to be done.
I have some result– but the problem is I really [...]

In my most recent post, I discussed hypothetical weather trends over the upcoming 5, 8 or 10 years that could, falsify the consensus position of climate chance, should they occur. In this post, I’ll discuss how I came up with the numbers statistics.
The steps to coming up with numerical values require me to:

Identify a [...]

I plan to post random musings here.
Currently, I’m teaching myself, ‘R’ a statistical package. In the process, I’ll be learning more about the climate of Växjö, Sweden that anyone could possible wish to know.
I obtained a series of temperature profiles from: The European Climate Assessment Database. The data are contained in the [...]