As some will recall, the bet-challenge for July Sea Ice was to forecast the average JAXA sea ice recorded for the July 18-July 31 inclusive. The results are now in… and the winner is…. DonB who, owing to the small number of betters too all the quatloos!
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Frequent commenters have noticed that the blog is throwing a lot of server errors lately. I have not been able to identify the precise cause. Communicating with Dreamhost, it appears that something launches a process that loads a large amount of memory. This causes Dreamhost to start killing processes to keep my from taking down shared hosting, which is fair.
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It appears RyanO has requested data from NCAR/UCAR, the request has been refused, and RyanO may now be embarked on dealing with the same sort of run-around treatment exhibited by CRU. (See Data Stonewalling Resumes.) In light of these recent events, it’s worth reviewing some of the findings vis-a-vis CRU’s intransigence with respect to disseminating data documented in the Muir Russell report (PDF). The relevent findings appear to consistently criticize scientists for lack of openness, defying statutory requirements and for risking damage to the reputation of climate scientists as a result of their lack of openness:
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HadCrut June data are in. I don’t know if I missed the alert earlier, or if I just happened to catch this before the alert arrived. Either way, the temperature anomaly was 0.534C making it the 2nd warmest HadCrut June anomaly, exceeded by June 1998. Temperature anomalies since 1980 are shown below with June anomalies circled: 
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Much digital ink was spent over the weekend castigating GISTemp for the supposed sin of mixing up the land and ocean areas of the earth. Frank Lansner (and Bob Tisdale, in a somewhat more nuanced post) both points out that to successfully replicate the global land/ocean GISTemp record requires a weighting ratio of around 70% land and 30% ocean instead of the 29% land / 71% ocean that characterizes the real world. If this were true, it would indicate a practice difficult to defend on the part of our friends at NASA. Fortunately, however, it is based on a simple misconception: mistakenly using the published GISTemp land record as an estimate of actual land temps.
[Fig 1]
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GHCN contains two main data files on their server: v2.mean, which is the unadjusted data from CLIMAT reports (with minimal QC) and v2.mean_adj, which is the adjusted data.
GHCN adjusted data isn’t actually used in many places; GISTemp and HadCRUT take in the raw data and do their own adjustments. We had assumed, however, that the NCDC land record used adjusted rather than raw data. A look at how reconstructions turn out using raw vs. adjusted data compare to NCDC suggests otherwise.
(click images to embiggen)
Updated! See below.
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Something I’ve been hoping for happened: the AMSU-A now displays a baseline mean, max and min to the data reported for AQUA Channel 5. You can now request a plot that shows data for years 2002-now, the record high, record low and average. I don’t know if the average is for a baseline period, or if it includes all data. But I went ahead and made a plot:
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On of the fun things about reading Monckton’s writing is his love of florid language; with some frequency he uses fancy words correctly. However, I’m a bit puzzled by a new-to-me word in the following paragraph:
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NOAA/NCDC reported their June Surface Temperature Anomalies for June: 0.6763 C. This is very slightly higher than May 2010 and represents the warmest June in the NOAA record. The temperatures with June highlighted are show below:
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Mosh and I have a new post up on WUWT presenting his version of the ye olde land temp reconstruction. It systematically goes through all the different choices one can make when creating a temperature reconstruction and does a first pass at quantifying the magnitude of each.
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Click to see this month's global lukewarming mugs!
