The Blackboard

Martin kindly collected all the bets in comments, and I made them into a kewl graph! Here’s everyone’s bet:
I also downloaded the range of bets and super-imposed them on the current status of the NH Sea Ice Extent as tallied by JAXA::
My purple box is approximate– I slapped that on by eye. Still… guys…. [...]

Arthur Smith posted a response to Monckton’s article posted by the APS. It seems there is some confusion over just what the IPCC concluded in the AR4. As it happens, Arthur’s first criticism is that Monckton is confused. Possibly he is.
But if so, Monckton is in good company. Because we’ll [...]

Issues and Resolutions:
My recent falsification of the IPCC AR4 projection of 2C/century was criticized as flawed because:

It did not properly account for ENSO.
Cochrane-Orcutt, and its uncertainty bands apply only when the noise is AR(1).

I have addressed both issues (details below), and find the falsification still holds. It is important to note that this falsification [...]