The Blackboard

I thought it would be fun to string together an El Niño animation. This script strings NOAA’s Operational SST Anomaly Charts for 2009.

Frame:

Document: document.write(document.title);

URL: document.write(document.URL);
Last Update: document.write(document.lastModified);

Watch color along the equatorial pacific change from blue in January to orange [...]

Last month I discussed Joe Romm’s nearly hysterical reaction to the fact that NOAA thought the Southern Oscillation was about to oscillate back to El Niño (as it often does after La Niña.) This month, NOAA, whose staff write with somewhat less emotion than Romm updated their forecast:
Model forecasts of SST anomalies for [...]

Many are aware that Joe Romm posted a rather over the top post discussing NOAA’s recent predictions of El Nino. Did any of you download the Monthly PDF?. Yes. NOAA does report the rather not-shocking news that that conditions are favorable to transition to El Nino. Some models, for example the NASA [...]

Some of you may rush to your computer this morning and noticed that Gavin posted to let us know he found a “neat” way to ENSO correct data. Amazingly to any American, he did this at 7 pm, July 4th. If you are an avid reader of “The Blackboard”, [...]

Issues and Resolutions:
My recent falsification of the IPCC AR4 projection of 2C/century was criticized as flawed because:

It did not properly account for ENSO.
Cochrane-Orcutt, and its uncertainty bands apply only when the noise is AR(1).

I have addressed both issues (details below), and find the falsification still holds. It is important to note that this falsification [...]