The Blackboard

HadCrut 3 reported their March anomaly. Here are their current values for the past two months:
2009/02 0.356
2009/03 0.359
You can see how these relate to previous temperatures in the figure below:
I’ve circled the March values in the figure above, you can see March is just a tiny bit warmer than February.
The big question for next month: Will [...]

In comments,Andrew_FL ask me to plot the trends since 1979 and the 20 year trends for HadCrut. I was going to wait until HadCrut updated…. but then I decided one month won’t make much difference. Here are the trends from 1979-”Year” for HadCrut, NOAA, GISSTemp compared to the trend based on 16 AOCGMs [...]

GISS reported their land/ocean temperature anomaly for March 2009. The GISSTemp March anomaly was 0.47 C, up from 0.41C in February. Than may be spun all sorts of ways: For examples, it’s lower than March ‘08 value of 0.68 C, but higher than March ‘00 0.46C and of course, it’s higher than every [...]

Yesterday, I commented on Gavin’s defense of AOGCM models that ’saved’ their virtue by resorting to some novel notions. Today, I will show that even if we accepted one of the sillier arguments (which, the royal “we” does not), my analysis would still indicate the model-mean trend does not match the observed trend.
Recall, [...]

After I posted the analysis comparing simulated trends with varying start years all ending now, someone suggested I perform the same analysis, but examine all 8 year trends. That is: Look at the trend from 1960-1967, 1961-1968 (all inclusive) and so on. Eight years is selected because I’ve been focusing on 2001-now [...]

A new model with 17 SRESA1B runs has appeared at The Climate Explorer. The runs span 1950-2100. I downloaded, rebaselined using 1950-1980 and compared the anomalies to HadCrut and GISSTemp. Here’s how the 12 month running averages look:
The +95% uncertainty intervals are computed by assuming the temperature distribution in any month is normally distributed [...]