The Blackboard

NOAA’s May anomaly is 0.5225C down from 0.5990C currently recorded for April and also down from 0.6050 C reported for April during May.
Anomalies with trends since both 2000 and 2001 are shown above. The trend since 2001 is negative. The trend since 2000 is positive, but less [...]

GISS Temp reported their may anomaly. It’s up to 0.09C from April, hitting 0.55C.

May 2009 is warmer than May 2008 which was 0.42C.
May 2009 is cooler than May 2007, which hit 0.57 C.
The least squares trend since 2000 is 0.103 C/decade; the red corrected uncertainty range is [-0.8C/Century, 2.8 C/century] which is not [...]

This recent quote from Stefan Rahmstorf appears in Environmental Research Letters:
“The global temperature is rising just as expected. If you look at the trend over the last twenty years or so, of course there is natural variability, around that trend, there are some warmer years like 2001 to 2005 were above the long term [...]

Many are aware that Joe Romm posted a rather over the top post discussing NOAA’s recent predictions of El Nino. Did any of you download the Monthly PDF?. Yes. NOAA does report the rather not-shocking news that that conditions are favorable to transition to El Nino. Some models, for example the NASA [...]

I thought Anthony would be happy to learn that NOAA’s April anomaly dropped from 0.0605 C to 0.0599C. I wonder what this portends for May’s anomaly, which is not yet out?
I’m still waiting for Roy Spencer’s leaked UAH data to be “official”. After that, we’ll look at RSS and UAH [...]

Here’s the skinny on recent RSS anomalies, in graphical form:
Temperature anomalies in pictures:

April’s RSS of 0.202 C dropped to a May RSS of 0.090C.
For those who prefer to notice anomalies rose, the May 2008 RSS of -0.078C rose to a May 2009 RSS of 0.090C.
For those wondering how UAH and [...]

Guess what? If we run the Santer17 type test on Global Surface temperatures, we now find that the model-mean trend rejects relative to both GISSTemp and Hadley temperatures and they both rejected 12 months ago. Amazing, huh?
You may wonder: Why do we care about what results the test gave if we ignore the most recent [...]

HadCrut finally reported: April was warmer than March. Trends computed both starting in 2000 (for those who like positive trends) and since 2001 (for those who like negative ones) are shown below:
As you can see, all three agencies show negative trends since 2001– though NOAA’s negative trend is so slight we need to show [...]

Have you ever noticed the wildly oscillating intercepts on the least squares trends fit to Global Surface Temperatures? Have you wondered whether there is some way force that intercept to ‘meaningful’ value and still check whether a hypothesis (like the IPCC’s “about 2C/century”) might describe the data. Well, it is possible to fix the intercept [...]

GISS reported the April anomaly: 44/100 C. That’s down from 49/100 C in March 2009. The blizzards in Utah, my slow-to-start spring garden and all the grousing about spring taking a long time to get here did register on the world’s thermometers. That said, April 2008 with its anomaly of 43/100ths [...]