Some of you may rush to your computer this morning and noticed that Gavin posted to let us know he found a “neat” way to ENSO correct data. Amazingly to any American, he did this at 7 pm, July 4th. If you are an avid reader of “The Blackboard”, [...]
Issues and Resolutions:
My recent falsification of the IPCC AR4 projection of 2C/century was criticized as flawed because:
It did not properly account for ENSO.
Cochrane-Orcutt, and its uncertainty bands apply only when the noise is AR(1).
I have addressed both issues (details below), and find the falsification still holds. It is important to note that this falsification [...]
I thought I’d announce my prediction for the temperature anomaly for 2008. I predict the average temperature anomaly for 2008, as reported by GISS Land/Ocean measurements will be 0.70 ± 0.11 C.
The ±0.11C is my hookey claim for the standard error. That means if my model is halfway decent, there is roughly a 2/3 [...]
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