In comments, vg posted an ice image (without the average values included) from artic-roos.org and said, “whats happened to your ice bets this year looks like melt may have actually stopped August 2009!” Some discussion ensued. Zeke and I don’t think there is even the remotest chance the arctic melt has already stopped in August. [...]
As those hoping they won the coveted “Sea Ice Bet Brownies” know, we are waiting for Dr. Chapman at The Cryosphere Today to update this file to include the Jul-Aug-Sep. average NH ice extent data. In the meantime, one commenter requested I post a table so we could read the precise values of everyone’s bets. [...]
Cassanders requested that I provide an update on our Sea Ice Bets. Though the minimum appears to have been achieved, I cannot yet declare the official winner. Why not? Because when I announced the competition, I indicated that the goal was to predict the summer minimum as it would appear on this table at the [...]
My sea ice bet of a summer NH ice extent of 7.4 million km2 is doing ok! (Recall, started all this; Atmoz bet 7.7 million km2; he’s still in the running too. The bet is over the number that will appear in the summer column in the table at the Cryosphere today.) The interest in [...]
Atmoz proposed a bet on the summer sea ice extent and placed his bet at 7.7 million km^2, using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression on data from 1950 to last year. This means he is predicting the ice will be well above last years record low of 5.557 million km^2. I predict 7.4 million [...]
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