The Blackboard

I’ve been bummed that I can never scoop Roy Spencer on the UAH temperature anomalies. I wracked my brains trying to figure out how I can come out with some sort of “first” temperature reading of the month. I considered a number of strategies:

Hiring a secret agent to sneak into Roy’s office, slip Roy [...]

Guess what? If we run the Santer17 type test on Global Surface temperatures, we now find that the model-mean trend rejects relative to both GISSTemp and Hadley temperatures and they both rejected 12 months ago. Amazing, huh?
You may wonder: Why do we care about what results the test gave if we ignore the most recent [...]

HadCrut finally reported: April was warmer than March. Trends computed both starting in 2000 (for those who like positive trends) and since 2001 (for those who like negative ones) are shown below:
As you can see, all three agencies show negative trends since 2001– though NOAA’s negative trend is so slight we need to show [...]

Have you ever noticed the wildly oscillating intercepts on the least squares trends fit to Global Surface Temperatures? Have you wondered whether there is some way force that intercept to ‘meaningful’ value and still check whether a hypothesis (like the IPCC’s “about 2C/century”) might describe the data. Well, it is possible to fix the intercept [...]

In discussion in comments, I showed Lazar a plot illustrating the results of tests of the hypothesis that multi-model mean trend agrees with the trend underlying the single realization of earth weather indicates that the multi-model mean is probably not equal to that for the earth: i.e. it appears the mean trend for models is [...]

Every now and then, someone who doesn’t like what I do at my blog suggests I should be using annual average data instead of monthly data. They have correctly noticed that test based on 8 years of annual average data give different results than test using 96 months worth of data, and, if they like [...]

I’ve done some computations, and I’m no longer sure I can tell the difference between the behavior of hurricane experts and monkeys!
My uncertainty about my inability to distinguish hurricane experts from monkeys is the fruit of a computationally intensive calculation inspired by a long conversation that began with
Inexpert Elicitation by RMS on Hurricanes, by [...]

Believe it or not, the purpose of this post is to show this figure and respond to some odd claims in comments at other blogs.
The figure above compares the running 12 month averages temperature anomalies in C for all runs in all models used in the IPCC and available at The Climate Explorer and [...]

If you love climate blog wars you’ll want to see this graph
Notice that the trend in surface temperatures from January 2001-December is positive; the trend from Jan 2008 to March 2009 is positive. Yet…. “mysteriously”… the trend from January 2001 to March 2009 is negative.
Go figure!?
So, what does amazing event [...]

Deep Climate sure likes to come up with his own idiosyncratic methods of computing trends for the earth’s surface temperature!
In comment 12745, Deep introduced the notion that we could learn something by noticing that 20 year average trends have been increasing. I pointed out that I was aware they are increasing, but at [...]