The Blackboard

As I was sitting down to dinner, I opened an email forwarded by my mother, and originally sent by Ana Sylvia in El Salvador. It read: Have you heard of this? http://www.elsalvador.com/mwedh/nota/nota_completa.asp?idCat=6376&idArt=4829267 http://www.elsalvador.com/mwedh/nota/nota_completa.asp?idCat=6376&idArt=4829574 http://www.theworldpress.com/press/worldpress/salvadorpress/laprensa.htm http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/americas/05/28/guatemala.volcano/index.html After dinner, I checked Google news and read a volcano erupted in Guatemala and another in Ecuador. There have been [...]

Have you ever noticed that discussions explaining how recent negative short term trends are somehow to be expected forget to mention volcanoes? Well, today, I’m going to show you a quote, and two figures. Two figures are required because the quote involves both avoiding mentioning volcanoes when mentioning them matters. The Quote The quote I [...]

Friday’s post compared the multi-model mean trend based on simulations of AOGCM runs to the observed temperatures. In comments, I mentioned that I had also filtered based on models based on volcanic eruptions. The graph below shows that if we compare the multi-model mean trend based on models driven by the more realistic 20th century [...]

Yes. I’ve been silent…. I’ve been wanting to double check some results so I can discuss some findings in details. However, the double checking required some time, in this case, the final discussion will be deferred for a while. In the meantime, I thought I’d let you have a look at a graphical comparison of [...]

The subject of today’s post is, once again, Santer17, the paper intended to rebut Douglass’s contention that AGCM model predictions of Tropical Tropospheric Temperatures (TTT) are inconsistent with observed data. While the paper has its merits, it also has some curious features some of which have been discussed at Climate Audit. I’ve mostly focused examining [...]

Santer17, makes an interesting claim in their rebuttal analysis to Douglass 2007. It is this: “Experiments with synthetic data reveal the use of an AR-1 model for calculating ne trends to over estimate the true effective sample size (Zwiers and von Storch, 1995). This means our d test is too liberal, and more likely to [...]

After Steve McIntyre established that equation (12) Santer17 (pdf ) does not contain a typo, I decided to apply the paired t-test in Santer17 section 4.2 to test two hypotheses; both are similar in form to the one Santer17 refers to as “H2″. My tests however, relate to Global Mean Surface Temperature (GMST) and are [...]

Yesterday, I announced my prediction of the global mean surface temperature (GMST) based on GISS Land/Ocean data. My prediction based on a very simple phenomenological model of climate with two parameters: time constant τ and inverse heat capacity α. I haven’t knocked all the kinks out of data analysis, but I made the prediction anyway. [...]