The Blackboard

Have you ever noticed that discussions explaining how recent negative short term trends are somehow to be expected forget to mention volcanoes? Well, today, I’m going to show you a quote, and two figures. Two figures are required because the quote involves both avoiding mentioning volcanoes when mentioning them matters.
The Quote
The quote I [...]

Friday’s post compared the multi-model mean trend based on simulations of AOGCM runs to the observed temperatures. In comments, I mentioned that I had also filtered based on models based on volcanic eruptions. The graph below shows that if we compare the multi-model mean trend based on models driven by the more realistic 20th [...]

The subject of today’s post is, once again, Santer17, the paper intended to rebut Douglass’s contention that AGCM model predictions of Tropical Tropospheric Temperatures (TTT) are inconsistent with observed data. While the paper has its merits, it also has some curious features some of which have been discussed at Climate Audit. I’ve [...]

After Steve McIntyre established that equation (12) Santer17 (pdf ) does not contain a typo, I decided to apply the paired t-test in Santer17 section 4.2 to test two hypotheses; both are similar in form to the one Santer17 refers to as “H2″. My tests however, relate to Global Mean Surface Temperature [...]