Lucia, how many months of memory does your model have, there was a huge swing from jan 07 to jan 08, could that be
‘creating’ the negative slope? like JohnV I was kinda stunned that correctiong for autocorrelation would swing
the trend line down that way. Also, I’m wondering about the wisdom of doing a serial correlation in a downward
trending period, same as if it were upward trending.. How to put this.. What we see ( subjectively) when we look at these series is periods where it’s getting colder, and since it is getting colder, it gets colder. Then we see periods where it gets warmer and getting warmer, its gets warmer. UNTill it changes. So during these regimes of warming and cooling the serial correlation is there, but what happens across those change points. How to put this? Should I estimate the serial
correlation from a period Wider than the period I am studying?… err maybe I’m being stupid here.
Nevertheless, IPCC may be in for a bad year, verification wise.
Somewhat related. The SRES are giant piles of dog poo. to use a scientific term.
Lucia, how many months of memory does your model have, there was a huge swing from jan 07 to jan 08, could that be
‘creating’ the negative slope? like JohnV I was kinda stunned that correctiong for autocorrelation would swing
the trend line down that way. Also, I’m wondering about the wisdom of doing a serial correlation in a downward
trending period, same as if it were upward trending.. How to put this.. What we see ( subjectively) when we look at these series is periods where it’s getting colder, and since it is getting colder, it gets colder. Then we see periods where it gets warmer and getting warmer, its gets warmer. UNTill it changes. So during these regimes of warming and cooling the serial correlation is there, but what happens across those change points. How to put this? Should I estimate the serial
correlation from a period Wider than the period I am studying?… err maybe I’m being stupid here.
Nevertheless, IPCC may be in for a bad year, verification wise.
Somewhat related. The SRES are giant piles of dog poo. to use a scientific term.