It’s getting hot here in Illinois. Time for y’all to bet onJuly’s UAH! You know the rules: Enter your guess for July’s UAH. We’ll declare the winner after Roy Spencer posts. The cutoff is entered as July 16, which I think means it cuts off as soon as July 15 is over in Greenwich.
Betting cuts off on 7/19.
Looking through the “betting” category, I see that July 2010 was +0.489 and July 2009 was +0.429. Checking the updated AQUAch5, so far, July 1011 is between the two, but closer to July 2011.
But since Lucia posted the winning numbers for prior Julys and now, Roy Spencer has re-baselined the anomaly calculation. So, in today’s terms, July 2010’s anomaly is somewhat less that +0.489.
I know this has been discussed by PaulF and others, but I can’t find the actual adjustment. Bleg — can anybody post it, with a suitable link?
Yeah, I know, this sort of comment has the effect of tightening the field, and makes it harder to win all those quatloos…
Dr. Spencer indicates that July 2010’s re-baselined global anomaly is 0.419 deg C. The adjustment for July global must therefore have been -0.07 deg C.
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2011/01/dec-2010-uah-global-temperature-update-0-18-deg-c/
The anomaly was 0.31C in June. One ought to know at least a little of a horse’s recent form before placing a bet.
For this month I am betting 5 quatloos again as I always like to play big.
Last week it was sunny in Sydney and the track was fast so I was considering 0.4C.
Today it is cold and damp and the track is heavy. I am placing my faith in 0.24C.
May the best horse win.