Roy posted the Dec 2011 UAH anomaly; it’s 0.127C. You can see the tiny rise in the graph below:
This post will be brief owing to a) The time sink dealing with AT&T Uverse (all reps were nice. ) and b) Dreamhost having some issues this morning. Feel free to ask about either in comments.
This month 4 bettors (Robert Leyland ,Tamara ,AFPhys and Paul Butler) were in the ‘+’ column. Congratulations. To all others: I’ll post the script to bet on January 2012 and the annual value for 2012 later this week. (I’m going to wait for Dreamhost to be stable!)
| Rank | Name | Prediction (C) | Bet | Won | |
| Gross | Net | ||||
| — | Observed | 0.127 (C) | |||
| 1 | Robert Leyland | 0.121 | 4 | 64.749 | 60.749 |
| 2 | Tamara | 0.12 | 5 | 64.749 | 59.749 |
| 3 | AFPhys | 0.134 | 3 | 31.079 | 28.079 |
| 4 | Paul Butler | 0.113 | 5 | 21.348 | 16.348 |
| 5 | denis | 0.142 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 6 | John Norris | 0.111 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 7 | Tim W. | 0.1 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 8 | enSKog | 0.099 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 9 | Hal | 0.089 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 10 | Pavel Panenka | 0.082 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 11 | ob | 0.175 | 1 | 0 | -1 |
| 12 | MikeP | 0.079 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 13 | Anton | 0.075 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 14 | AMac | 0.189 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 15 | Don B | 0.063 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 16 | lucia | 0.2 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 17 | Joel Heinrich | 0.052 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 18 | Bebben | 0.051 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| 19 | Boris | 0.209 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 20 | ivp0 | 0.02 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 21 | Arfur Bryant | 0.017 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 22 | John F. Pittman | 0.01 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 23 | Ray | 0.01 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 24 | Eddieo | 0.007 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 25 | Freezedried | 0.005 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 26 | LC | 0.252 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 27 | Nyq Only | 0 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| 28 | mccall | -0.007 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 29 | Phil Rogan | -0.01 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 30 | Vlasta | -0.011 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 31 | Jon P | -0.016 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 32 | MDR | -0.019 | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| 33 | nzgsw | -0.02 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 34 | lance | -0.031 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 35 | Anteros | -0.037 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 36 | Roy Weiler | 0.295 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 37 | KÃ¥re Kristiansen | -0.042 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 38 | MarcH | -0.05 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 39 | Cassandra | -0.07 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 40 | Pieter | -0.074 | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| 41 | mct | -0.107 | 2 | 0 | -2 |
| 42 | Cassanders | -0.109 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 43 | RobB | -0.135 | 5 | 0 | -5 |
| 44 | Steve T | -0.15 | 3.93 | 0 | -3.925 |
The net winnings for each member of the ensemble will be added to their accounts.
Congratulations to those whose ‘skill and judgement’ allowed them to snaffle all the quatloos. Well done!
I’m baffled – the more computing power and inside info I use, the worse I seem to do. Even using the ‘force’ had no effect..
*
I think maybe it’s time to cross my fingers and use blind guesswork 😉
This month is the beginning of an important six years – important for at least 3 people. In 2005 Galena Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev bet James Annan $10,000 that 2012-2017 would be cooler than 1998-2003. Their bet will use NCDC, but since The Blackboard bets on UAH…
UAH Anomalies, equally weighted monthly averages, degrees C:
1998-2003 = 0.139
2006-2011 = 0.175
2011 = 0.149
Centered 8 years apart, the most recent 6-year period is warmer than the earlier one by 0.036 C (only +0.45 C per century! ) Not a worrisome warming, unless $10,000 is at stake. I will stick to quatloos – only lost 4 of those this month.
Hmmm, missed by 0.016. Dr. Spencer must have a latent error.
#Anteros (Comment #88184):
“I think maybe it’s time to cross my fingers and use blind guesswork”
That’s the CAGW spirit! 🙂
Any guesses on how much lower 2008-2011 will be after V6 comes out?
Well done to those who guessed correctly this month.
Clearly I (along with 80% of the other bettors), have again underestimated the upside potential for temperatures in December, probably over-influenced by low AQUA CH5 temperatures during the first half of the Month.
I should have known better, since most monthly UAH anomalies have exceeded the theoretical figures during 2011.
Does this now mean that all the “denialists” who say there’s been no warming in the last decade are slightly wrong?
Has anyone seen this article, in which the UK Met. Office is forecasting a rise in the global temperature anomaly (NB re;lative to 1971-2000), from 0.36c in 2012 to 0.72c over the period 2012 to 2016, and a further rise to 0.97c by 2021?
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc
Based on their figures for 1998 and 2009, to convert these figures to 1961-90, you have to add about 0.12c, so 0.36c = 0.48c, 0.72c = 0.84c and 0.97c = 1.09c.
It isn’t clear from the article what assumptions have been made regarding CO2 levels, presumably they are assumed to continue to increase, although rises seem to slow down during the latter part of the forecast.
It was warm here in November and December so I am not surprised at the flat trend. It is cold as heck here right now so I am predicting a decline in January. Getting my quatloos ready.
@Anteros
“I think maybe it’s time to cross my fingers and use blind guesswork ”
I think I pointed that out last month.
@bugs
“I think I pointed that out last month”
I remember it well. I confess I still couldn’t resist the idea of knowing the future. I’m very reluctant to admit I cannot see it in advance.
I’m also haemorrhaging quatloos…
The UKMO forecasted anomaly for 2012, relative to 1961-90 has now been confirmed as being +0.48c.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2011/2012-global-temperature-forecast
This is the time of year when stock market gurus confidently make predictions, and “investors” eargerly read them, even though there is no predictive skill involved.
Speaking of which, I bet I can figure out UAH this month!