It has been proposed we initiate Ice Bets. Various bet variations and agencies are being bandied about in comments. My leanings are toward:
- Entities that report promptly.
- Entities that report one concrete number value at a time in a simple clear indisputable way. (I’m willing to compute 7 day averages; I am not going to be writing a script to compute a value by counting colored pixels on a graph. Bets must be on something that is very easy to compute based on numbers an agency reports. )
- Entities whose instrument is not likely to stop working during the course of the bet. (We can structure to deal with instruments failing, but ideally we should anticipate the instrument is likely to report numerical values during the betting period. )
- Entities that have published historic data on the metric we are wagering about. I’m ok with the algorithm being tweaked– but I’m not ok with wagering if the agency didn’t even post data on “X” last year.
- Something that lets us discuss who is in the lead as we watch the ice do whatever it does.
Given that, I open the thread to permit people to propose an ice bets. Of course, we’ve done annual minima before and I like that. Feel free to propose which agency we should use this year etc.
When JAXA went kaput, I had proposed DMI (http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php) but getting the data from them may be more effort than it is worth.
Perhaps not:
http://saf.met.no/p/ice/#conc_details
Unfortunately, the Japanese had to delay the start of their H-2A launcher with the GCOM-W1 satellite (AMSR2 included) onboard from Tanegashima. But I repeat that we should wait for them and see if the new product is as useful as the old one was.
It will be interesting to see how they coordinate the new measurements with the old data; hopefully they can restart AMSR-E for that.
Whatever is chosen – extent, volume, whatever, – can it be monthly?
Maybe an annual minimum/maximum has it’s own interest – perhaps more so than the annual temperature anomaly, but I think following a monthly record works for pragmatic reasons.
Perhaps the annual minimum could be bet on numerous times, with an equal weight to each months estimate..
haha. lets have a competition with neven’s blog
Recipes!!!
http://www.food.com/recipe/ice-cubes-420398
(The ratings and reviews….)
I found a website called the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
http://nsidc.org/
They appear to be a data warehouse but they do publish numbers. I don’t know how reliable or credible they are.
Does anyone have anything good or bad to say about this site?
@ Skeptikal
Read this
http://www.thearcticinstitute.org/2012/03/thick-multi-year-ice-melting-rapidly.html
and remember that these are the people who think arctic ice is in a death spiral.
I also did not find the numbers. JAXA had daily (although ridiculously exact) numbers on the same page as the curves.
If we had bet on wether DMI or Nansen will have a record maximum this year, these would be an interesting few days. If we would bet if any MSM would mention such a maximum, the answer is too easy: Of course not.
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic
Isn’t it at http://nsidc.org/data/g02135.html ?
Alexej: yeah, it’s a shame the lamestream media will not stop the presses to announce a new “record high” year.
.
Since 2007.
.
[Edit] As for data, Neven seems to have a lot of links. Not sure if that’s what you’re after, but you may want to have a look.
Sorry, my fault. I thought that the “Arctic Institute” was part of NSIDC. That does not change the fact that somebody at NSIDC first used the term “death spiral” regarding arctic ice.
And I still cannot find their data.
And another mistake I made: Today the red curve of Norsex ice extent seems higher than the brown curve. Maybe they will change it again, but I really have trouble to see the death spiral there.