Betting

Merry Christmas!! (And Bet on UAH!)

19 Comments

Merry Christmas All!


[sockulator(../musings/wp-content/uploads/2011/UAHBets5.php?Metric=UAH TTL?Units=C?cutOffMonth=1?cutOffDay=1?cutOffYear=2014?DateMetric=December, 2013)sockulator]
Bets close midnight Dec. 31!

The sewing bing continues… Jim is happy with new slacks which came out with leg widths, lengths rises etc. very similar to Levy’s dockers. So that was a success. But he’s noticed “skinnier” legged pants, so the next pair is a skinnier version. Blocks for others to use will be made more consistent and online in a week or two. (So those who know sewers who need things for unusually small or large men, or just hard to fit men might like them. That said: assembly instructions will be sketchy. I’m following instructions from an old Kwick Sew pattern and will be modifying where appropriate!)

19 thoughts on “Merry Christmas!! (And Bet on UAH!)”

  7. For those looking to gather a Smaug-sized trove of quatloos through wagering rather than honest work (like me), here is Roy Spencer’s latest graph of anomalies, 1979 to November 2013.

    Merry Christmas, everyone!

  9. Merry Christmas, Lucia.
    Thank you for all you do.
    Best wishes for a healthy and prosperous New year.

  10. Happy Boxing Day! Yes, that is the day when you can get those great deals on gifts for those almost special people in your life that you somehow forgot 🙂

  12. Hey everyone, hope your Christmas was wonderful. I continue to work on that volcano thing. It’s weird:

    http://devoidofnulls.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/besthadsst3hadcrut4volcanoprofile.png

    As before, the green and black is from BEST and the dark blue and red is from HADCRUT4. The lighter blue curves are based on HADSST3. It seems that volcanic eruptions cause a kind of strange divergence between Land temperatures and sea surface temperatures. Curiouser and curiouser.

    Anyway, choosing the month of the first local maxima of the smoothed HADCRUT4 average volcanic response, I find it occurs at the 45th month. If I selected the values the smoothed curves take then and detrend each volcanic response profile to zero at that point, the result looks a little bit more like what one would naively expect: the land drops more now, and earlier (at least than HADCRUT4), and the ocean shows a smaller drop (though oddly it too hits it’s smoothed minimum before HADCRUT4 does, and apparently simultaneous with the land? strange):

    http://devoidofnulls.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/trendsremovedvolcanoprofile.png

    Which has the interesting effect that, if I create a global average of the HADSST3 detrended profile and the BEST detrended profile (.29*BEST + .71*HADSST3) I get a smaller lag of the AOD to temperature dip by a few months (my 9 month lage had seemed long to begin with).

  13. Thank you to Lucia and other blog contributors for the discussion of Turkey brining earlier this month. This North European transformed the Christmas turkey from dried out cotton wool flavoured last year to succulent and juicy feast this year. We really can learn from you New World chappies in the kitchen. Now I can’t wait until next Christmas to roast one again.

  14. Andrew FL, If you use Tmin and Tmax separately, Tmax has a larger initial volcanic response due to reflection while Tmin has little response in the NH because of its stronger link to SST. NH SST can actually increase after a volcanic event because of increase MOC due to the larger temperature gradient depending on the timing of the event and ocean “memory”. That was noted in the Anet paper in discussion at CofP.

    Something else that is fun is how DTR has a “global” correlation to solar but not so much by hemisphere due to a much more interesting combination of effects.

    http://redneckphysics.blogspot.com/2013/12/impact-of-asymmetry-on-forcing.html

    Now that is going to require some statistical wizardry.

  17. Les Johnson:

    Yep – I plead guilty to a cool bias in my betting. I live in Minnesota and it is hard to grok the global anomaly when my local anomaly is so different. We had a really cold December in Minnesota.

  18. Rick: Yeah, same here. Its been a brutal winter fall, with winter just started. Record snow and cold.

    Sigh… only 3 more months until spring….

  19. Since the appropriate threads for replying are closed I’ll post the following here.

    Lucia, you mentioned your brother-in-law drinking aqua vit and I was wondering whether that was a generalization for the Norwegian drink, Akvavit. In asking the following questions I am assuming that your husband and his brothers are of Norwegian descent. Do you prepare dishes with a Scandinavian flavor and do you ever watch Andreas Viestad on Create TV who travels through Norway with a modile kitchen and makes his food preparations even more inviting by the juxtaposition with the scenic outdoors of Norway?

    BillC and AndrewF, since the thread on which we were discussing the Weng paper and potential cloud effects on satellite temperature trends for the troposphere is closed, I’ll relate here that I was able to find 451 land based stations around the globe that had at least 10 years of mostly complete daily data for cloud cover, precipitation and mean temperature. I was attempting to download from KNMI on a continuous and automatic manner into R from the station data listed there, but for some unknown reason could not make it work – even after rereading what Steve McIntyre did awhile back. I went to the source of the data provided by KNMI and was able to conveniently download it into R.

    To make a long story short I measured temperature trends at each of these 451 stations with no precipitation and under cloud conditions at the ends of the cloud cover scale and found that the less cloudy conditions resulted in significantly higher temperature trends than the more cloudy conditions. This result may or may not have a bearing on the question that I posed about the Weng paper findings of higher trends under clear sky conditions over the oceans from satellite measurements of the troposphere: Was that finding an artifact of the satellite measurement due to clouds as the authors of Weng claimed or at least implied or was the difference real?

    My investigation has also made me think about the resolution of station data versus satellite data and how this might affect the findings in Weng. I do not have a detailed feel for the uniformity of cloud conditions over the oceans, but I would guess that using the 2 degree by 2 degree areas for satellite measurements is doing some averaging over rather different cloud conditions.

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