Betting

Bet on March UAH: Cut-off Ides of March!

8 Comments

Still waiting for Roy to announce February UAH, but here’s your chance to bet on March UAH: cut off is the Ides of March. I haven’t entered my bet yet because I’m testing the method of betting based on previous month’s readings and February isn’t available yet.

[sockulator(../musings/wp-content/uploads/2011/UAHBets5.php?Metric=UAH TTL?Units=C?cutOffMonth=3?cutOffDay=16?cutOffYear=2014?DateMetric=March, 2014?)sockulator]
Cut-off day is March 15, 2014.

8 thoughts on “Bet on March UAH: Cut-off Ides of March!”

  1. I find it disconcerting this page tells me I’ve “tried to bet at least 0 times.”

  3. I think your March UAH post is linked to your Feb. 2014 UAH post, because I put my March bet in and went to the Feb. 2014 post to see what I had “guessed” last month and found my Feb. guess crossed out and my March “guess” listed as the most recent bet.

    Just FYI.

  4. Lucia: Yes, same thing for me, as RickA says. My feb bet was crossed out, and my March bet was put in.

  5. Oops. I bet first before I read the comments. I think someone named Hal needs to check into a quick ethics course.

  6. hmm,
    looks like our host’s repeated reminders that we’ve tended to “underguestimate” the value finally made an impact. A coarse calculation put the avarage bet on 0.23, and the great majority of bets above the actual.
    Cassanders
    In Cod we trust

  7. Im giving 8 to 1 odds , that we will have a big El Nino! If you are a betting person , please get a hold of me.

  8. My analysis of the March betting:

    NO. OF BETS 43
    MAX 0.321
    MIN -0.040
    MEAN 0.192
    MEDIAN 0.193
    STD DEV 0.065
    MEAN 1-22 0.192
    MEAN 22-43 0.189
    MEAN PLUS 1 SD 0.257
    MEAN MINUS 1 SD 0.127
    WITHIN +/- 1 SD (%) 72.09
    ABOVE MEAN (%) 51.16
    BELOW MEAN (%) 48.84
    ABOVE FEB (%) 72.09
    BELOW FEB (%) 23.26

    The figures seem fairly consistent with very little difference between mean and median and almost the same numbers above and below the mean.
    However there is a big majority in those predicting a higher figure than February.
    The simple linear trend (March figures only) is 0.225c.

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