Lack of compliance is going to happen. Big time.
The scientist whose advice prompted Boris Johnson to lock down Britain resigned from his Government advisory position on Tuesday night as The Telegraph can reveal he broke social distancing rules to meet his married lover.
Professor Neil Ferguson allowed the woman to visit him at home during the lockdown while lecturing the public on the need for strict social distancing in order to reduce the spread of coronavirus. The woman lives with her husband and their children in another house.
A gem:
She has told friends about her relationship with Prof Ferguson, but does not believe their actions to be hypocritical because she considers the households to be one.
I’m sure lots of people are going to use that theory to explain why their kids can play with the other neighborhood kid at the playground. We are all really just one household. . . 🙂
For more read “Exclusive: Government scientist Neil Ferguson resigns after breaking lockdown rules to meet his married lover “
And it begins:
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“.. A conservative justice on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court is questioning whether Democratic Gov. Tony Evers’s stay-at-home orders are the “definition of tyranny.”..”
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My question for you is, where in the constitution did the people of Wisconsin confer authority on a single, unelected Cabinet secretary to compel almost 6 million people to stay at home and close their businesses and face imprisonment if they don’t comply, with no input from the Legislature, without the consent of the people?”
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“ Republicans hold a 5-2 majority in the Wisconsin Supreme Court.”
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https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/496231-wisconsin-supreme-court-justice-questions-whether-stay-at-home-orders
Lucia,
Always with the left elites it’s the same: “The rules I make are for thee, not for me.” What is truly mind boggling is they are either arrogant liars or completely non-selfaware. I suspect it is mainly the former, not the latter.
Ed Forbes,
I think the issue before the court will be the unilateral extension of the stay-at-home order, when that extension appears to require approval of the legislature. The Democrat governor was unwilling to compromise with the Republican controlled legislature on continued restrictions, so just ignored the law. The governor is going to lose this one I think. It is unclear if the governor and legislature will be able to compromise if the court strikes down the extension. My guess: the governor, like most Democrats, will never compromise on substantive policy.
Harry Read Me rides again! Ferguson’s code mess.
https://lockdownsceptics.org/code-review-of-fergusons-model/
Conclusions. All papers based on this code should be retracted immediately. Imperial’s modelling efforts should be reset with a new team that isn’t under Professor Ferguson, and which has a commitment to replicable results with published code from day one.
On a personal level I’d actually go further and suggest that all academic epidemiology be defunded.
Stan, I wouldn’t put much stock in this review based purely on software considerations. Lots of codes don’t give repeatable answers because parallelism introduces random changes in ordering of calculations.
The main think I would fault Imperial on is that their IFR is probably a factor of 2 to 5 too high so their fatality projections were also way too high. But their 1% was Fauci’s number too. Serological testing shows its between 0.12% and 0.5% at the highest.
Fauci is incompetent too. These guys have cost the world trillions. Based on “science “ that’s just as crappy as the CRU garbage that gave us Harry Read Me. The same kind of “science “ that gave us a hockey stick with an R2 of 0.02.
We don’t have to look at the code to know that. It was obvious when they were throwing around bizarre WAGs at a time when everyone paying attention knew they didn’t have any solid data. They were reckless in the extreme. The hubris was and is breathtaking.
Steve: “ I think the issue before the court will be the unilateral extension of the stay-at-home order, when that extension appears to require approval of the legislature”
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Looks to me that the court is looking at the issue in a more fundamental level, as shown by their question that included “ …where in the constitution..”
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The defense pointed to a state statute in response, but statutes don’t trump constitutional issues.
Ed Forbes,
There is no doubt that particular judge is horrified by the lack of constitutionality. But I think the decision of the court will hinge on the Governor’s refusal to gain approval of the legislature for an extension, as required by the law in question. Should the court side with the governor(very unlikely) that will be when constitutional issues become more relevant.
Another example of the elites saying “our rules are for thee, not for me”.
Ferguson is in all probability the person who gave the Wuhan virus to Boris Johnson. He met with the PM just a day or two before developing symptoms and Johnson got sick an appropriate amount of time later.
In reply to David Young
The review I read of the code by “Sue DeNim” explained that they found problems where the code would not produce the same results given the same inputs and initial conditions. It wasn’t being run in parallel mode because they couldn’t get it to work in that mode. It started out as a 15,000 line file without much modularity in the coding.
My own experience tells me that complicated programs written by amature coders are likely to suffer from all of the pitfalls – uninitialized variables, global variables modified in multiple code segments, “off-by-one” pointer arithmetic, etc. All of that can lead to “non-deterministic” results if it doesn’t crash the whole thing. The fact that these dudes weren’t even regression testing after making changes is beyond bad practice – especially for something driving national if not world policy.
In my prior life, I had to approve software for commercial aviation products and before that I was one of the developers/maintainers. Sue DeNim’s review read as completely plausible to me. Not sure I would have gone as far DeNim’s statements at the end:
“On a personal level, I’d go further and suggest that all academic epidemiology be defunded” which I think is unfounded based on only a review of their model code.