Roy announced Augusts UAH, and we only have 2 significant figures to play with. So, time to bet on September’s UAH:
[sockulator(../musings/wp-content/plugins/BettingScripts/UAHBets5.php?Metric=UAH TTL?Units=C?cutOffMonth=9?cutOffDay=12?cutOffYear=2012?DateMetric=September, 2012?)sockulator]
Bets Close 9/11/2012
You know the drill. If you don’t, ask!
So how does asking remove knowledge of the drill?
Or is there perhaps a comma missing?
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I was wondering about that!
So far, September is looking like a very difficult month to call.
Once again, here is my analysis of the September betting:
NO. OF BETS 32
MAX 0.46
MIN 0
MEAN 0.294
MEDIAN 0.322
STD DEV 0.109
MEAN 1-18 0.283
MEAN 19-32 0.325
MEAN PLUS 1 SD 0.404
MEAN MINUS 1 SD 0.185
WITHIN +/- 1 SD (%) 78.13
ABOVE MEAN 15
BELOW MEAN 17
MEAN V AUG -0.046
BETS ABOVE AUG 13
BETS BELOW AUG 17
The consensus this month seems to be that September’s anomaly will show a slight fall on that for August, by an average of about -0.05c. 17 people plumped for above last month, 13 below and 2 no change (always a good starting point!).
The average bet increased slightly during the course of the betting.
I find myself almost at the top of the bets and while it’s too soon to come to any conclusions yet, all I will say is that last month the average was 0.094c too low!
Unfortunately we don’t appear to have Lucia’s opinion this month.