Betting

Bet on July UAH!

6 Comments

After lingering coolth, it’s now hot in Chicago. Mowing the lawn was no fun! And in honor of the heat wave, we can all bet on July’s UAH.

[sockulator(../musings/wp-content/uploads/2011/UAHBets5.php?Metric=UAH TTL?Units=C?cutOffMonth=7?cutOffDay=23?cutOffYear=2013?DateMetric=July, 2013?)sockulator]
Cut off: midnight 7/22

6 thoughts on “Bet on July UAH!”

  1. My (unofficial) analysis of this month’s betting:

    NO. OF BETS 37
    MAX 0.44
    MIN -0.15
    MEAN 0.24
    MEDIAN 0.29
    STD DEV 0.11
    MEAN 1-19 0.243
    MEAN 19-37 0.244
    MEAN PLUS 1 SD 0.35
    MEAN MINUS 1 SD 0.13
    WITHIN +/- 1 SD (%) 72.97
    ABOVE MEAN (%) 56.76
    BELOW MEAN (%) 40.54

    The most likely range between 0.13c and 0.35c although there are more above the mean than below it, as a result of which, the median is slightly higher than the mean.
    The average increased slightly during the course of the betting, despite the late bet on a negative anomaly.

  2. Ah well. That’s what you get if out of coverage for 5 days at a Festival, the bets en and close while you were not looking. 🙂

    I suspect it will remain fairly close to the same as last month but it looks like I will have to carry my last months winnings over till next month now (unless I end up at another Festival that is).

    Still no-one interested in m simple arithmetic cheat sheet?

  3. Richard LH

    Why don’t you just post your July number in a comment for the record?

  4. mwgrant (Comment #117870)
    July 23rd, 2013 at 8:19 pm
    Richard LH

    “Why don’t you just post your July number in a comment for the record?”

    Well I sort of did. I think it will reamin around 0.3c with an accumlative target such that the Dec 2013 12 month running average )which we will not be able to check until Jun 2014) will be around 0.13c or slightly higher. month to month predictions can be basde on likely RMS values being met. Hence the rather good shot first time out. Never mind, savie me winning sfor now (and get the bet on record for the next 18 months 🙂 )

    See the ‘chat sheet’ for futher info.

  5. Richard LH

    “Well I sort of did. ”

    Indeed you did say that above:

    “I suspect it will remain fairly close to the same as last month”

    Looking back, you are also covered in a fashion in July betting page comments.

    Good luck.

    BTW I was putzing around with a persistence model regressing against the previous month’s NH, SH,etc. UAH values. It seemed to do pretty well when it worked but January made clear it was just too simple and continuous in concept [and July confirmed that although I did not get the bet in]. I have my suspicions which I think your calcs might shed light on. It will be fun to see.

    Regards
    mwg

  6. Think big digital RMS meter driven by a bandpass splitter circuit (you might like to look those up). And what does Power and 1.3371.. have to do in common? Any why orbital values?

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