Most of September is past. We had a bit of warm weather earlier on but temperatures have turned cool which is nice for jogging outdoors! Those who would like to bet on UAH lower tropospheric temperatures, you know the drill! Obviously, you should have access to lots of hints about Septembers temperature– not that that necessarily helps a lot!
[sockulator(../musings/wp-content/uploads/2011/UAHBets5.php?Metric=UAH TTL?Units=C?cutOffMonth=10?cutOffDay=1?cutOffYear=2013?DateMetric=September 2013?)sockulator]
Cut off: midnight 9/30
6 thoughts on “Late Date for Betting!”
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Lucia,
I notice that my first bet hasn’t been crossed out.
Is that due to something I did?
Here is my analysis of this month’s betting.
I have excluded the bet figure of 0.8c by simon as it appears to be an error and would skew the figures.
I have added two more figures, the numbers above and below last month’s anomaly:
NO. OF BETS 29
MAX 0.364
MIN 0.078
MEAN 0.169
MEDIAN 0.150
STD DEV 0.079
MEAN 1-15 0.175
MEAN 15-29 0.162
MEAN PLUS 1 SD 0.248
MEAN MINUS 1 SD 0.090
WITHIN +/- 1 SD (%) 72.41
ABOVE MEAN (%) 37.93
BELOW MEAN (%) 62.07
ABOVE AUG (%) 41.38
BELOW AUG (%) 58.62
It appears that the majority of bets predict a fall compared with August, although the actual mean is higher than last month, while the median is lower.
Roy has posted for September…. a toasty +0.37C, so it looks like John Norris winds the quats.
Way above the betting mean or median and even outside the mean + 2 standard deviations.
On the other hand, almost identical to Sept. 2012!
saw this coming with August’s SSTs and the Aqua Ch6 data. just didn’t go high enough (damn hope springs eternal).
Yes!