Betting

Winner of 7 Day minimum ice extent bet: Joel Heinrich!

17 Comments

I’ve finally run the script to determine the winner of the Ice Extent bet. JAXA did a change on us. As discussed in comments: As long as Jaxa did not stop reporting V1 before the end of September, I stuck with the V1 data available at http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv. My script was already set up to read that. Based on that value, the 7 day ice minimum was 5.045 millions km^2. This is plotted below:

JaXA_7_Day

The winners came very close to getting the exact value. Joel Heinrich bet 5.043, BenfromMO and MDF both bet
MDR 5.05; the tie goes to the first to bet. Very good going. Plenty of peoeple bet, so plenty are ‘in the money”. Meanwhile, last place goes to suzanne, feabqtcqy (a known bot) and Dr. Jay Cadbury, phd. It takes quite a bit of doing to come in behind a bot, but Dr. Jay was game and managed and provided an extra 5 quatloos for the winners to split.

The list is below.

Winnings in Quatloos for NH Ice Extent NH Ice Weekly Ave Minimum Predictions.
Rank Name Prediction (x 106km2) Bet Won
Gross Net
— Observed +5.045 (x 106km2)
1 Joel Heinrich 5.043 5 82.32 77.32
2 BenfromMO 5.05 4 52.685 48.685
3 MDR 5.05 2 21.074 19.074
4 Jon P 5.02 5 42.148 37.148
5 Hal 5.011 5 33.718 28.718
6 BobKC 5.01 2 10.79 8.79
7 Bill 5.01 3 12.948 9.948
8 Sylvain 5 5 17.264 12.264
9 lance 5 3 8.287 5.287
10 RichardDupuis 5 5 11.049 6.049
11 sHx 5.1 5 8.839 3.839
12 Kevin 5.1 5 7.071 2.071
13 moschops 4.981 5 5.657 0.657
14 Earle Williams 5.11 5 4.526 -0.474
15 SimonWood 4.98 1 0.724 -0.276
16 AMac 4.973 3 1.738 -1.262
17 Don B 4.97 4 1.854 -2.146
18 LC 5.125 5 1.854 -3.146
19 Genghis 5.13 5 1.483 -3.517
20 SteveF 5.135 5 1.186 -3.814
21 Niels A Nielsen 5.145 5 0.949 -4.051
22 Golfgeek 4.92 5 0.759 -4.241
23 MikeP 4.89 5 0.607 -4.393
24 PavelPanenka 5.2 3 0.292 -2.708
25 LesthedartboardJohnson 5.2 5 0.389 -4.611
26 SteveT 5.2 3 0.187 -2.813
27 freezedried 5.21 5 0.249 -4.751
28 AndrewKennett 5.218 5 0.199 -4.801
29 Randal 4.87 3 0.096 -2.904
30 KÃ¥re Kristiansen 5.22 4 0.102 -3.898
31 matthew 4.867 4 0.082 -3.918
32 MikeZ 5.227 3 0.049 -2.951
33 julio 4.86 5 0.065 -4.935
34 march 5.23 5 0.052 -4.948
35 Skeptikal 5.23 2 0.017 -1.983
36 dlb 5.231 3 0.02 -2.98
37 BigBear 5.235 3 0.016 -2.984
38 Richard 4.85 5 0.021 -4.979
39 Ed Forbes 5.25 5 0.017 -4.983
40 mccall 4.84 5 0.014 -4.986
41 Ben 4.83 5 0.011 -4.989
42 Chuck 4.82 4 0.007 -3.993
43 RichardLH 4.8 3 0.004 -2.996
44 Anteros 4.797 5 0.006 -4.994
45 torn8o 4.781 5 0.004 -4.996
46 Crashex 5.31 4 0.003 -3.997
47 enSKog 4.765 5 0.003 -4.997
48 TomP 5.33 1 0 -1
49 Roy Weiler 4.75 5 0.002 -4.998
50 DeWittPayne 4.75 5 0.001 -4.999
51 Arfur Bryant 4.742 4 0.001 -3.999
52 Gareth C 4.74 5 0.001 -4.999
53 jeez 4.74 3 0 -3
54 Swift 4.71 5 0.001 -4.999
55 JohnNielsenGammon 4.7 2 0 -2
56 George Tobin 4.684 5 0 -5
57 Geoff Cruickshank 4.67 3 0 -3
58 RobertInAz 5.43 1 0 -1
59 David Jay 4.61 5 0 -5
60 JohnF.Pittman 4.61 5 0 -5
61 Gary 4.6 3 0 -3
62 ivp0 4.593 5 0 -5
63 GoWhitecaps 5.5 5 0 -5
64 lucia 4.569 5 0 -5
65 Boris 4.563 5 0 -5
66 RickA 5.53 5 0 -5
67 Anamoi 4.557 5 0 -5
68 Chris Brown 4.55 5 0 -5
69 rc 4.54 3 0 -3
70 YFNWG 4.512 5 0 -5
71 RobB 4.5 5 0 -5
72 Ray 4.495 5 0 -5
73 ScottBasinger 5.61 5 0 -5
74 GeorgeTobin 4.45 4 0 -4
75 Owen 4.45 5 0 -5
76 pdjakow 4.44 5 0 -5
77 Piete 4.432 5 0 -5
78 Tamara 4.422 5 0 -5
79 BuckSmith 4.4 4 0 -4
80 RobertLeyland 5.701 4 0 -4
81 Bob Z 4.38 5 0 -5
82 Carl Szczerski 4.355 5 0 -5
83 denny 4.35 3 0 -3
84 HaroldW 4.341 5 0 -5
85 angech 4.33 2 0 -2
86 TimW. 4.32 5 0 -5
87 ob 4.313 3 0 -3
88 EarleWilliams 5.78 5 0 -5
89 Perfekt 5.792 5 0 -5
90 JeffF 5.8 3 0 -3
91 DocMartyn 5.81 5 0 -5
92 BobKoss 5.813 5 0 -5
93 Michael J 4.27 5 0 -5
94 BenjaminG 4.25 5 0 -5
95 Andres 4.23 1 0 -1
96 Paul Butler 4.22 4 0 -4
97 bob droege 4.2 5 0 -5
98 Hal 5.9 5 0 -5
99 Falcon 4.17 3 0 -3
100 Ruth 4.13 5 0 -5
101 Alan Betts 4.11 1 0 -1
102 TimTheToolMan 6.01 5 0 -5
103 KreKristiansen 6.01 4 0 -4
104 Tim W 4 5 0 -5
105 mb 4 5 0 -5
106 Howard 3.985 2 0 -2
107 NickStokes 3.811 4 0 -4
108 doctord3 3.7 3 0 -3
109 bobdroege 3.45 5 0 -5
110 suzanne 8.566 5 0 -5
111 feabqtcqy 8.69 5 0 -5
112 Dr. Jay Cadbury, phd. 999999 5 0 -5

As many know: This years ice extent is not a minimum; however, the overall trend remains down. What will happen next year? Who knows? I’ll have to do some projections!

17 thoughts on “Winner of 7 Day minimum ice extent bet: Joel Heinrich!”

  2. “the overall trend remains down”

    If it wasn’t for the 2012 August Cyclone the trend would be up from 2007.

  3. Lucia, I don’t know if you know the categories the bettors fall into, but it would be interesting to see if the alarmists predicted less ice than the lukes, and the lukes less than the skeptics.

  4. RE: Bob (Comment #120095)

    A quick eyeball analysis looks like there is little consistency between climate change ideology and ice extent predictions. I am right in with Lucia and Boris at 4.59. As I recall Boris tends to lean alarmist, Lucia is classic LW, and I tend to run slightly cooler than the LW mean. Nick Stokes is the only alarmist type I recognize that guessed way too low this year. A month of warm water entering the arctic might have made him a winner though.

    I bet early and expected a mild recovery this year but never guessed we would see such a dramatically different August melt. Mid-pack among all bettors again which tends to get expensive.

  5. Did you also run with version2?
    Besides being close, would like to know for calibration purposes.

    mccall

  7. 111 feabqtcqy 8.69
    112 Dr. Jay Cadbury, phd. 999999

    Before I offered feabqtcqy a bit of, er, betting advice, he/she/it used to be off by orders of magnitude. The spambot ice-estimation skillset seems to be improving. Or perhaps he/she/it hacked your script, swapping #111 with last place!

  8. Think I’ll pat myself on the back. This year I was less than a million sq km off. Big improvement over last year.

  9. Bob (Comment #120095)

    I was wondering the same.

    Ranked by predication in descending order-

    Sheet 2: RankDescending
    1 Dr. Jay Cadbury, phd. 999999
    2 feabqtcqy 8.69
    3 suzanne 8.566
    4 TimTheToolMan 6.01
    5 KreKristiansen 6.01
    6 Hal 5.9
    7 BobKoss 5.813
    8 DocMartyn 5.81
    9 JeffF 5.8
    10 Perfekt 5.792
    11 EarleWilliams 5.78
    12 RobertLeyland 5.701
    13 ScottBasinger 5.61
    14 RickA 5.53
    15 GoWhitecaps 5.5
    16 RobertInAz 5.43
    17 TomP 5.33
    18 Crashex 5.31
    19 Ed Forbes 5.25
    20 BigBear 5.235
    21 dlb 5.231
    22 march 5.23
    23 Skeptikal 5.23
    24 MikeZ 5.227
    25 KÃ¥re Kristiansen 5.22
    26 AndrewKennett 5.218
    27 freezedried 5.21
    28 PavelPanenka 5.2
    29 LesthedartboardJohnson 5.2
    30 SteveT 5.2
    31 Niels A Nielsen 5.145
    32 SteveF 5.135
    33 Genghis 5.13
    34 LC 5.125
    35 Earle Williams 5.11
    36 sHx 5.1
    37 Kevin 5.1
    38 BenfromMO 5.05
    39 MDR 5.05
    40 Joel Heinrich 5.043
    41 Jon P 5.02
    42 Hal 5.011
    43 BobKC 5.01
    44 Bill 5.01
    45 Sylvain 5
    46 lance 5
    47 RichardDupuis 5
    48 moschops 4.981
    49 SimonWood 4.98
    50 AMac 4.973
    51 Don B 4.97
    52 Golfgeek 4.92
    53 MikeP 4.89
    54 Randal 4.87
    55 matthew 4.867
    56 julio 4.86
    57 Richard 4.85
    58 mccall 4.84
    59 Ben 4.83
    60 Chuck 4.82
    61 RichardLH 4.8
    62 Anteros 4.797
    63 torn8o 4.781
    64 enSKog 4.765
    65 Roy Weiler 4.75
    66 DeWittPayne 4.75
    67 Arfur Bryant 4.742
    68 Gareth C 4.74
    69 jeez 4.74
    70 Swift 4.71
    71 JohnNielsenGammon 4.7
    72 George Tobin 4.684
    73 Geoff Cruickshank 4.67
    74 David Jay 4.61
    75 JohnF.Pittman 4.61
    76 Gary 4.6
    77 ivp0 4.593
    78 lucia 4.569
    79 Boris 4.563
    80 Anamoi 4.557
    81 Chris Brown 4.55
    82 rc 4.54
    83 YFNWG 4.512
    84 RobB 4.5
    85 Ray 4.495
    86 GeorgeTobin 4.45
    87 Owen 4.45
    88 pdjakow 4.44
    89 Piete 4.432
    90 Tamara 4.422
    91 BuckSmith 4.4
    92 Bob Z 4.38
    93 Carl Szczerski 4.355
    94 denny 4.35
    95 HaroldW 4.341
    96 angech 4.33
    97 TimW. 4.32
    98 ob 4.313
    99 Michael J 4.27
    100 BenjaminG 4.25
    101 Andres 4.23
    102 Paul Butler 4.22
    103 bob droege 4.2
    104 Falcon 4.17
    105 Ruth 4.13
    106 Alan Betts 4.11
    107 Tim W 4
    108 mb 4
    109 Howard 3.985
    110 NickStokes 3.811
    111 doctord3 3.7

    72 predictions were lower than Joel Heinrich’s winning wager, 39 were higher. There are numerous identical bets (Lucia and Boris were off by only .003).
    It offers some insight into Blackboard readers as a group. More analysis might be interesting.

  10. 4th! Wow! If I only picked lottery numbers this well.

    I chuckled seeing the racehorse finish 107th.

    BTW, Can I donate my Quatloos to Mark Steyn?

  12. Despite saying that the JAXA v1 figures would cease at the end of September, they still seem to be being published.
    I have been doing some comparison between V1 and V2 extent figures and it is interesting that while the change has resulted in a general reduction of extent figures for individual dates, it has (so far), resulted in an increase in the average annual extent figures.
    The reason for this apparent paradox is that the period and extent of the increases is larger than the period and extent of reductions.
    Over the period 2003-2009, the average continuous period of reductions was July 21st to October 17th with an average maximum reduction of 164,759 square km, while the average maximum increase for the longer period was 324,149 square km.
    However, since 2010, the average continuous period of reductions has been June 28th to October 25th and the average maximum reduction has been 338,174 square km.
    If this pattern continues, it will not be long before there is a reduction in the annual extent figure as a result of the switch, although we will not know what that is, if the v1 figures are no longer published.
    What is also interesting is while there is a general fall in the increase from v1 to v2 during April to July, there are specific periods during which there are increases, i.e. during the first week of May, June and July.
    Also, while there is a general increase from October to December, there are declines during the first weeks of October, November and December.
    Since these “anomalies” are so regular and contradictory to the overall pattern, that they don’t look “natural” to me and are possibly the result of some sort of artifact of the extent calculation process.

  13. Re my above post.
    The change hasn’t resulted in a general reduction of daily extent figues for individual dates.
    What there has been is a reduction in the increase for those days which show an increase and a decline in the number of those days which show an increase.
    So the the fact that the annual figures show increases wasn’t really a paradox!
    My apologies for any confusion this may have caused.

  14. On October 18th, JAXA v2 was only 40,994 square KM lower than v1 and we could see v2 exceeding v1 during the next few days.
    It could be the earliest date on which v2 starts to exceed v1 continuously since 2009.
    If past patterns are repeated, the amount by which v2 exceeds v1 will fall during the first few days November and then start to increase again, until early December.

  15. Ray, V2 was designed to make minimums look lower than V1 for no good reason other than alarmism.

  16. DeWitt Payne (Comment #120105)
    October 9th, 2013 at 9:41 am

    “The seven day running average minimum for version 2 was 4.824749 Mm²”

    Thanks, DwP

    ==========
    And the WINNER of the “We’re Moving The Goal Posts (using v2)…

    60 Chuck 4.82

  17. On October 26th, the JAXA v2 extent exceeded the v1 extent for the first time since June 6th., by 33,798 square km.
    The v2 extent also got to within 260,000 square km of the 2004 v2 extent figure for the same date.
    As 2013 v2 is currently increasing more quickly than in 2004, it may ye exceed 2004 during early November.

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