Some readers may be aware that ice watchers — including both members from both the “melter” and “icer” factions are closely monitoring the ice melt on Climate Audit. As of August 5, the map from NSIDC shows the ice extent well above that measured in 2007.

Based on comments at CA, things were touch and go July. By July 26, “icers” were breathing sighs of relief. On July 26th, after DeWitt Payne posted an image of the rate of change in ice extent; the yellow trace showing the rate of ice loss had been significantly was slower than the loss rate in 2007, show in pink, those conversing suggested that the danger of ice extent dropping below 2007 was now unlikely.

Jeez, soon to be recognized as the announcer for the “icers”, exclaimed:

July 26th, 2008 at 2:59 pm

The Baby Ice is going to make it back home for Winter!

Soon they will discover that the Mommy ice wasn’t really killed in the first five minutes, it just appeared that way, she was just dazed and has been rotating aimlessly for months.

Happy Ending!

But some still fretted for the baby ice:

To #45: The race against 2007 is over, but 2008 has a 50-50 chance of overtaking 2005 and 2006, which would make it the second lowest extent on record.

On July 28th, Steve McIntyre elaborated on the race with 2005-2006.

Looking ahead, 2007 has some big days in a couple of days. I can’t see any way that 2008 can catch up; too much time is off the clock. I think that CA can fairly claim to have been on this story well ahead of the forecasts from the sea ice people.

2006 (and 2005) is a race. 2008 has been gaining steadily on 2006 for some time.

Dewitt Payne responded with a discussion of moving averages, (evidently suggesting more baby ice would survive than in 2006).

Jeez responded with joy:

WOO HOO! THE BABY ICE IS GOING HOME!

BABY ICE! BABY ICE! BABY ICE!

Unfortunately, things were still perilous for the baby ice. On July 29, Phil, taking the role of announcer for the “melters” pointed toward the dangerous day ahead:

Actually that’s the low projected to reach 7ºC, looks like good melting weather. 😉
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-16_metric_e.html

Temperatures and weather at locations in places like Kugluktuk, Barrow, James Bay….

On July 30th, 2008 AndyW noted there may still be some melting ahead:

However 2008 is peaking a bit later this year so it will be interesting in the next week or 2.

Sean Egan posted to inform ice watcher’s CNN was still predicting a record ice melt this year. Phil continued to report pessimistic signs from the Eastern Siberian Sea (ES). Unlike other ice watchers at CA, Phil still wary of melting suggested the 2007 record could still be broken:

Last year the ES was all gone by now whereas it normally reaches its minimum by early september, further losses there this year could continue for about 6 weeks. Similarly the LS had just about reached its minimum for the year (~0.1) by now and again the normal time for the end of melting there is early september so potential for further losses exists there too. How close 2008 gets to setting a new record depends on what happens in the ES & LS and the story there is far from over.

Dewitt Payne continued to make projections of ice minima.

Meanwhile, squabbles between “melters” and “icers” broke out over the use of different statistics. Should we be debating melt rate? Ice extent? Ice area? The group had started with ice extent, which is not dropping as rapidly as some feared at the beginning of the melt season; Phil proposed a change to monitoring ice area as more meaningful.

On July 31, JohnUK said:

The game here is extent not area. The Game rules were chosen by the “ice science community” who have decide to analyse and benchmark and trend extent.

I did write to David Parker at the UK Hadley Centre wanting to know why they always reported extent and not area, and in short his reply was they had to pick something, neither extent or area are absolute, they both have definitions, but they reasoned that extent would be better for the purpose of trying to find out what was happening in terms of climate change.

So, it appears most ice watchers at CA are monitoring ice extent, but it appears that Phil was getting ice area data from NSIDC by cell phone.

After some squabbling between the “icers” and “melters”, on August 1, John Lange reported the ice pack had migrated to Barrow where snow was falling. Phil responded by noting warm weather in Kugluktuk. Bender threw his statistical opinion of the side of “melter” Phil. John Lang suggested warm air temperature might endanger the baby ice.

In response, Jeez, commentator for the “icers” summarized the ice migration debate,

The baby is ice is lost, confused, but will find its way home.

And later elaborated:

Seemingly plunged into a downward spiral of accelerating destruction, the baby ice cautiously and at the same time playfully relies on instinct, not courage to survive to another season.

It is this instinct, carved and molded by generations of ice that came before, that protect and sustain the baby ice throughout the treacherous long summer season.

After beating back the solar onslaught, the now exhausted baby ice crawls slowly towards the safety and comfort of the long winter nights, finally to rest, to heal, to strengthen, and thus to perpetuate nature’s glorious ice dance of the seasons.

On August 3, Phil, the announcer for the small “melter” contingent pointed to other dangers for the baby ice:

If we’re entering cool phase of the PDO that would lead to increased SST anomalies in the N Pacific: PDO counter intuitive but the phases are named according to their effect on the N American coast not overall.

Later that day, BarryW mentioned the NSIDC reported, “The Arctic sea ice is now at the peak of the melt season. Although ice extent is below average, it seems less likely that extent will approach last year’s record low.” Showing his “icer” partisanship, BarryW then exclaimed, “Go Baby Ice!”

Jeez described the situation eloquently:

Weakened, but not crippled, the baby ice seeks comfort in numbers, huddling together to fend off the waning, but still dangerous attacks of the sun, rain, and wind.

For in this battle between nature’s adversaries, time is the referee, the arbiter of success, and survival the only means to victory.

Soon, the exhausted baby ice will know either the joy of returning home to flow another year, or the endless peace of failure.

After 24 hours of intense reporting of ice statistics by ice watchers, Jeez summarized,

Twenty-four long, grueling hours have passed and it is time to for that painful but necessary census of the unmelted—those last hardy remainders of the baby ice pod that still fights for its survival.

No sound is heard as the pod clusters together, communicating via touch who still lives and via absence those now wet souls who will be forever missed.

Seemingly sentient, the pod of baby ice stiffens, gaining resolve, bracing for the ongoing battle with the elements, and although it makes no sense, apparently leaning into the wind, as if gesturing, “bring it on!”

And thus, on August 4, 2008, we saw the baby ice was still fighting for its life:

(From The Cryosphere Today)

Will the baby ice survive August? Will new ice form in September? Icers and melters alike will be watching.