{"id":10252,"date":"2010-04-01T10:52:43","date_gmt":"2010-04-01T16:52:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/?p=10252"},"modified":"2010-04-02T05:38:36","modified_gmt":"2010-04-02T11:38:36","slug":"does-this-have-a-unit-root","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/2010\/does-this-have-a-unit-root\/","title":{"rendered":"Does this have a unit root?"},"content":{"rendered":"

To those who are enjoying the unit root saga, I’ve generated some synthetic temperatures by forcing “Lumpy” with forcings similar to those used to drive GISS Model E, plus some “mystery” noise. (The mystery noise is uncomplicated.) These data are provided at the bottom of this post. The synthetic temperatures resemble earth surface temperature because they are generated using estimated forcings, but they also -differ because they were synthetically generated from a simple model with properties I selected.<\/p>\n

The synthetic data are graphed directly below. <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Figure 1: Temperature Generated by Forcing Lumpy.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

I’d like to know what conclusions VS’s method makes about the trend and the unit root for this time series. (I’d figure out how to do it myself, but right now, my brother & nephew are visiting and I’m running around doing family things.)<\/p>\n

If anyone would like to run VS’s various programs, their own, or apply the process in the Von Storch, Zorita paper that is being discussed in comments at Bart’s, I’d be interested in reading what an econometrician like VS concludes about this process. If this is done, I think it may help clarify (for me) some of the answers VS is presenting to eduardo’s questions over at Bart’s<\/a>. (Right now, I understand eduardo’s questions and explanations, and I don’t think VS is providing supporting words to help people understand how what he is doing relates to anything physical associated with climate.)<\/p>\n

If someone can find VS’s program can run these, and let me know what they find about unit roots or ARIMA, I’d thank them. I know he uses annual averages— so feel free to create annual averages etc. (If no one does it, I’ might do it next week.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
year<\/td>\nTemperature<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1880.96<\/td>\n0.0243<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1881.04<\/td>\n0.0452<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1881.12<\/td>\n0.0517<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1881.21<\/td>\n0.0611<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1881.29<\/td>\n0.0546<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1881.38<\/td>\n0.0317<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1881.46<\/td>\n0.0117<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1881.54<\/td>\n0.0054<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1881.62<\/td>\n0.0236<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1881.71<\/td>\n0.0092<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1881.79<\/td>\n-0.0103<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1881.88<\/td>\n-0.0309<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1881.96<\/td>\n-0.0226<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1882.04<\/td>\n-0.0223<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1882.12<\/td>\n-0.0070<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1882.21<\/td>\n-0.0057<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1882.29<\/td>\n-0.0038<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1882.38<\/td>\n0.0176<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1882.46<\/td>\n0.0309<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1882.54<\/td>\n0.0213<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1882.62<\/td>\n0.0201<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1882.71<\/td>\n0.0331<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1882.79<\/td>\n0.0247<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1882.88<\/td>\n0.0211<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1882.96<\/td>\n0.0009<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1883.04<\/td>\n-0.0376<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1883.12<\/td>\n-0.0591<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1883.21<\/td>\n-0.0891<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1883.29<\/td>\n-0.1093<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1883.38<\/td>\n-0.1237<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1883.46<\/td>\n-0.1121<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1883.54<\/td>\n-0.1107<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1883.62<\/td>\n-0.1614<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1883.71<\/td>\n-0.2287<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1883.79<\/td>\n-0.3248<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1883.88<\/td>\n-0.4553<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1883.96<\/td>\n-0.6053<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1884.04<\/td>\n-0.7392<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1884.12<\/td>\n-0.8584<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1884.21<\/td>\n-0.9755<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1884.29<\/td>\n-1.0613<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1884.38<\/td>\n-1.1278<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1884.46<\/td>\n-1.1980<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1884.54<\/td>\n-1.2350<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1884.62<\/td>\n-1.2504<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1884.71<\/td>\n-1.2517<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1884.79<\/td>\n-1.2651<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1884.88<\/td>\n-1.2667<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1884.96<\/td>\n-1.2521<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1885.04<\/td>\n-1.2242<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1885.12<\/td>\n-1.1988<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1885.21<\/td>\n-1.1492<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1885.29<\/td>\n-1.0911<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1885.38<\/td>\n-1.0528<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1885.46<\/td>\n-0.9714<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1885.54<\/td>\n-0.9117<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1885.62<\/td>\n-0.8624<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1885.71<\/td>\n-0.8255<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1885.79<\/td>\n-0.8054<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1885.88<\/td>\n-0.7759<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1885.96<\/td>\n-0.7421<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1886.04<\/td>\n-0.7044<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1886.12<\/td>\n-0.6627<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1886.21<\/td>\n-0.6405<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1886.29<\/td>\n-0.6021<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1886.38<\/td>\n-0.5416<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1886.46<\/td>\n-0.5018<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1886.54<\/td>\n-0.4845<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1886.62<\/td>\n-0.4556<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1886.71<\/td>\n-0.4878<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1886.79<\/td>\n-0.5147<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1886.88<\/td>\n-0.5211<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1886.96<\/td>\n-0.5292<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1887.04<\/td>\n-0.5214<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1887.12<\/td>\n-0.5125<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1887.21<\/td>\n-0.4934<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1887.29<\/td>\n-0.5030<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1887.38<\/td>\n-0.4964<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1887.46<\/td>\n-0.4873<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1887.54<\/td>\n-0.4801<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1887.62<\/td>\n-0.4767<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1887.71<\/td>\n-0.4419<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1887.79<\/td>\n-0.4146<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1887.88<\/td>\n-0.3917<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1887.96<\/td>\n-0.3605<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1888.04<\/td>\n-0.3435<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1888.12<\/td>\n-0.3190<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1888.21<\/td>\n-0.3128<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1888.29<\/td>\n-0.3040<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1888.38<\/td>\n-0.2789<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1888.46<\/td>\n-0.2742<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1888.54<\/td>\n-0.2730<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1888.62<\/td>\n-0.2793<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1888.71<\/td>\n-0.2866<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1888.79<\/td>\n-0.3046<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1888.88<\/td>\n-0.3219<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1888.96<\/td>\n-0.3362<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1889.04<\/td>\n-0.3589<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1889.12<\/td>\n-0.3559<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1889.21<\/td>\n-0.3473<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1889.29<\/td>\n-0.3669<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1889.38<\/td>\n-0.3743<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1889.46<\/td>\n-0.3581<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1889.54<\/td>\n-0.3579<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1889.62<\/td>\n-0.3612<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1889.71<\/td>\n-0.3424<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1889.79<\/td>\n-0.3109<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1889.88<\/td>\n-0.3125<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1889.96<\/td>\n-0.3317<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1890.04<\/td>\n-0.3474<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1890.12<\/td>\n-0.3825<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1890.21<\/td>\n-0.3900<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1890.29<\/td>\n-0.3961<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1890.38<\/td>\n-0.4064<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1890.46<\/td>\n-0.4282<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1890.54<\/td>\n-0.4178<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1890.62<\/td>\n-0.4110<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1890.71<\/td>\n-0.3997<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1890.79<\/td>\n-0.3976<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1890.88<\/td>\n-0.3981<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1890.96<\/td>\n-0.4096<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1891.04<\/td>\n-0.4222<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1891.12<\/td>\n-0.4074<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1891.21<\/td>\n-0.4066<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1891.29<\/td>\n-0.4090<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1891.38<\/td>\n-0.3995<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1891.46<\/td>\n-0.3969<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1891.54<\/td>\n-0.3765<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1891.62<\/td>\n-0.3503<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1891.71<\/td>\n-0.3372<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1891.79<\/td>\n-0.3290<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1891.88<\/td>\n-0.3064<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1891.96<\/td>\n-0.2979<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1892.04<\/td>\n-0.2904<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1892.12<\/td>\n-0.2705<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1892.21<\/td>\n-0.2583<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1892.29<\/td>\n-0.2568<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1892.38<\/td>\n-0.2538<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1892.46<\/td>\n-0.2681<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1892.54<\/td>\n-0.2569<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1892.62<\/td>\n-0.2458<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1892.71<\/td>\n-0.2290<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1892.79<\/td>\n-0.2297<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1892.88<\/td>\n-0.2472<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1892.96<\/td>\n-0.2343<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1893.04<\/td>\n-0.2086<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1893.12<\/td>\n-0.1705<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1893.21<\/td>\n-0.1421<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1893.29<\/td>\n-0.1445<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1893.38<\/td>\n-0.1422<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1893.46<\/td>\n-0.1260<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1893.54<\/td>\n-0.1174<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1893.62<\/td>\n-0.1080<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1893.71<\/td>\n-0.0962<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1893.79<\/td>\n-0.0999<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1893.88<\/td>\n-0.0977<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1893.96<\/td>\n-0.1032<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1894.04<\/td>\n-0.0931<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1894.12<\/td>\n-0.0765<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1894.21<\/td>\n-0.0657<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1894.29<\/td>\n-0.0520<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1894.38<\/td>\n-0.0331<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1894.46<\/td>\n-0.0445<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1894.54<\/td>\n-0.0390<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1894.62<\/td>\n-0.0632<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1894.71<\/td>\n-0.0828<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1894.79<\/td>\n-0.0919<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1894.88<\/td>\n-0.0983<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1894.96<\/td>\n-0.0994<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1895.04<\/td>\n-0.0991<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1895.12<\/td>\n-0.0847<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1895.21<\/td>\n-0.0689<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1895.29<\/td>\n-0.0711<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1895.38<\/td>\n-0.0570<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1895.46<\/td>\n-0.0478<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1895.54<\/td>\n-0.0484<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1895.62<\/td>\n-0.0379<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1895.71<\/td>\n-0.0444<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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1978.12<\/td>\n0.3092<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1978.21<\/td>\n0.3289<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1978.29<\/td>\n0.3438<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1978.38<\/td>\n0.3430<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1978.46<\/td>\n0.3312<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1978.54<\/td>\n0.3251<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1978.62<\/td>\n0.3276<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1978.71<\/td>\n0.3323<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1978.79<\/td>\n0.3485<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1978.88<\/td>\n0.3451<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1978.96<\/td>\n0.3260<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1979.04<\/td>\n0.3149<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1979.12<\/td>\n0.3153<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1979.21<\/td>\n0.3173<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1979.29<\/td>\n0.3172<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1979.38<\/td>\n0.3366<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1979.46<\/td>\n0.3374<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1979.54<\/td>\n0.3386<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1979.62<\/td>\n0.3444<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1979.71<\/td>\n0.3561<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1979.79<\/td>\n0.3688<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1979.88<\/td>\n0.3711<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1979.96<\/td>\n0.3951<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1980.04<\/td>\n0.3912<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1980.12<\/td>\n0.3818<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1980.21<\/td>\n0.3817<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1980.29<\/td>\n0.3754<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1980.38<\/td>\n0.3593<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1980.46<\/td>\n0.3734<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1980.54<\/td>\n0.3757<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1980.62<\/td>\n0.3723<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1980.71<\/td>\n0.3800<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1980.79<\/td>\n0.3756<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1980.88<\/td>\n0.3674<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1980.96<\/td>\n0.3830<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1981.04<\/td>\n0.3886<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1981.12<\/td>\n0.4018<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1981.21<\/td>\n0.3976<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1981.29<\/td>\n0.4040<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1981.38<\/td>\n0.4268<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1981.46<\/td>\n0.4329<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1981.54<\/td>\n0.4235<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1981.62<\/td>\n0.4369<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1981.71<\/td>\n0.4247<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1981.79<\/td>\n0.4381<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1981.88<\/td>\n0.4321<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1981.96<\/td>\n0.4360<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1982.04<\/td>\n0.4257<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1982.12<\/td>\n0.4300<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1982.21<\/td>\n0.4339<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1982.29<\/td>\n0.3997<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1982.38<\/td>\n0.3294<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1982.46<\/td>\n0.2375<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1982.54<\/td>\n0.1600<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1982.62<\/td>\n0.0734<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1982.71<\/td>\n0.0041<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1982.79<\/td>\n-0.0394<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1982.88<\/td>\n-0.0931<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1982.96<\/td>\n-0.1242<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1983.04<\/td>\n-0.1904<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1983.12<\/td>\n-0.2454<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1983.21<\/td>\n-0.2888<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1983.29<\/td>\n-0.3234<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1983.38<\/td>\n-0.3149<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1983.46<\/td>\n-0.3057<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1983.54<\/td>\n-0.2969<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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1983.71<\/td>\n-0.2576<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1983.79<\/td>\n-0.2177<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1983.88<\/td>\n-0.2165<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1983.96<\/td>\n-0.2122<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1984.04<\/td>\n-0.1814<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1984.12<\/td>\n-0.1482<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1984.21<\/td>\n-0.1328<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1984.29<\/td>\n-0.1007<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1984.38<\/td>\n-0.0898<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1984.46<\/td>\n-0.0646<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1984.54<\/td>\n-0.0477<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1984.62<\/td>\n-0.0194<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1984.71<\/td>\n0.0097<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1984.79<\/td>\n0.0288<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1984.88<\/td>\n0.0597<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1984.96<\/td>\n0.1005<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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1985.12<\/td>\n0.1572<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1985.21<\/td>\n0.1764<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1985.29<\/td>\n0.1923<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1985.38<\/td>\n0.1989<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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1985.54<\/td>\n0.2171<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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1985.96<\/td>\n0.3360<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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1986.21<\/td>\n0.2983<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1986.29<\/td>\n0.2969<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1986.38<\/td>\n0.3058<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1986.46<\/td>\n0.2975<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1986.54<\/td>\n0.2915<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1986.62<\/td>\n0.2858<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1986.71<\/td>\n0.2963<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1986.79<\/td>\n0.3012<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1986.88<\/td>\n0.3279<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1986.96<\/td>\n0.3349<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1987.04<\/td>\n0.3449<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1987.12<\/td>\n0.3736<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1987.21<\/td>\n0.3814<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1987.29<\/td>\n0.3771<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1987.38<\/td>\n0.3861<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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1987.71<\/td>\n0.4167<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1987.79<\/td>\n0.4284<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1987.88<\/td>\n0.4279<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1987.96<\/td>\n0.4482<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1988.04<\/td>\n0.4576<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1988.12<\/td>\n0.4524<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1988.21<\/td>\n0.4571<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1988.29<\/td>\n0.4538<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1988.38<\/td>\n0.4545<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1988.46<\/td>\n0.4598<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1988.54<\/td>\n0.4542<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1988.62<\/td>\n0.4710<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1988.71<\/td>\n0.4945<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1988.79<\/td>\n0.5076<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1988.88<\/td>\n0.5109<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1988.96<\/td>\n0.5229<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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1989.12<\/td>\n0.5345<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1989.21<\/td>\n0.5608<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1989.29<\/td>\n0.5877<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1989.38<\/td>\n0.5859<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1989.46<\/td>\n0.5818<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1989.54<\/td>\n0.5774<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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1989.71<\/td>\n0.6120<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1989.79<\/td>\n0.6273<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1989.88<\/td>\n0.6249<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1989.96<\/td>\n0.6189<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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1990.12<\/td>\n0.6127<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1990.21<\/td>\n0.6140<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1990.29<\/td>\n0.6226<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1990.38<\/td>\n0.6084<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1990.46<\/td>\n0.6164<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1990.54<\/td>\n0.6230<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1990.62<\/td>\n0.6137<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1990.71<\/td>\n0.5902<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1990.79<\/td>\n0.5872<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1990.88<\/td>\n0.5714<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1990.96<\/td>\n0.5783<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1991.04<\/td>\n0.5896<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1991.12<\/td>\n0.5863<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1991.21<\/td>\n0.5974<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1991.29<\/td>\n0.6175<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1991.38<\/td>\n0.6229<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1991.46<\/td>\n0.5901<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1991.54<\/td>\n0.5163<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1991.62<\/td>\n0.4064<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1991.71<\/td>\n0.2918<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1991.79<\/td>\n0.1736<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1991.88<\/td>\n0.0573<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1991.96<\/td>\n-0.0766<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1992.04<\/td>\n-0.1797<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1992.12<\/td>\n-0.2618<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1992.21<\/td>\n-0.3294<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1992.29<\/td>\n-0.3939<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1992.38<\/td>\n-0.4267<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1992.46<\/td>\n-0.4571<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1992.54<\/td>\n-0.4734<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1992.62<\/td>\n-0.4694<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1992.71<\/td>\n-0.4581<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1992.79<\/td>\n-0.4392<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1992.88<\/td>\n-0.3929<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1992.96<\/td>\n-0.3645<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1993.04<\/td>\n-0.3239<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1993.12<\/td>\n-0.2745<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1993.21<\/td>\n-0.2278<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1993.29<\/td>\n-0.1895<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1993.38<\/td>\n-0.1532<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1993.46<\/td>\n-0.1080<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1993.54<\/td>\n-0.0747<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1993.62<\/td>\n-0.0145<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1993.71<\/td>\n0.0099<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1993.79<\/td>\n0.0397<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1993.88<\/td>\n0.0594<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1993.96<\/td>\n0.0988<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1994.04<\/td>\n0.1466<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1994.12<\/td>\n0.1681<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1994.21<\/td>\n0.1839<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1994.29<\/td>\n0.2001<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1994.38<\/td>\n0.2199<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1994.46<\/td>\n0.2351<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1994.54<\/td>\n0.2380<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1994.62<\/td>\n0.2711<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1994.71<\/td>\n0.2865<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1994.79<\/td>\n0.3159<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1994.88<\/td>\n0.3190<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1994.96<\/td>\n0.3329<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1995.04<\/td>\n0.3626<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1995.12<\/td>\n0.3788<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1995.21<\/td>\n0.4044<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1995.29<\/td>\n0.4147<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1995.38<\/td>\n0.4185<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1995.46<\/td>\n0.4310<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1995.54<\/td>\n0.4338<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1995.62<\/td>\n0.4548<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1995.71<\/td>\n0.4795<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1995.79<\/td>\n0.4988<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1995.88<\/td>\n0.5321<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1995.96<\/td>\n0.5242<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1996.04<\/td>\n0.5462<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1996.12<\/td>\n0.5567<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1996.21<\/td>\n0.5682<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1996.29<\/td>\n0.5721<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1996.38<\/td>\n0.5646<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1996.46<\/td>\n0.5693<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1996.54<\/td>\n0.5818<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1996.62<\/td>\n0.5735<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1996.71<\/td>\n0.5832<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1996.79<\/td>\n0.5598<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1996.88<\/td>\n0.5547<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1996.96<\/td>\n0.5633<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1997.04<\/td>\n0.5779<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1997.12<\/td>\n0.6025<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1997.21<\/td>\n0.6192<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1997.29<\/td>\n0.6233<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1997.38<\/td>\n0.6424<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1997.46<\/td>\n0.6431<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1997.54<\/td>\n0.6351<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1997.62<\/td>\n0.6318<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1997.71<\/td>\n0.6385<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1997.79<\/td>\n0.6466<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1997.88<\/td>\n0.6555<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1997.96<\/td>\n0.6551<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1998.04<\/td>\n0.6673<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1998.12<\/td>\n0.6639<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1998.21<\/td>\n0.6578<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1998.29<\/td>\n0.6681<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1998.38<\/td>\n0.6883<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1998.46<\/td>\n0.6942<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1998.54<\/td>\n0.6867<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1998.62<\/td>\n0.7019<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1998.71<\/td>\n0.7091<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1998.79<\/td>\n0.7163<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1998.88<\/td>\n0.7049<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1998.96<\/td>\n0.7026<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1999.04<\/td>\n0.7164<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1999.12<\/td>\n0.7247<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1999.21<\/td>\n0.7328<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1999.29<\/td>\n0.7419<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1999.38<\/td>\n0.7399<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1999.46<\/td>\n0.7454<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1999.54<\/td>\n0.7481<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1999.62<\/td>\n0.7537<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1999.71<\/td>\n0.7565<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1999.79<\/td>\n0.7896<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1999.88<\/td>\n0.8102<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
1999.96<\/td>\n0.8105<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2000.043<\/td>\n0.8133<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2000.127<\/td>\n0.8282<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2000.21<\/td>\n0.8363<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2000.293<\/td>\n0.8255<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2000.377<\/td>\n0.8154<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2000.46<\/td>\n0.8147<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2000.543<\/td>\n0.8170<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2000.627<\/td>\n0.8247<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2000.71<\/td>\n0.8147<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2000.793<\/td>\n0.8327<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2000.877<\/td>\n0.8347<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2000.96<\/td>\n0.8449<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
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2001.127<\/td>\n0.8267<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2001.21<\/td>\n0.8336<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2001.293<\/td>\n0.8372<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2001.377<\/td>\n0.8426<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2001.46<\/td>\n0.8441<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2001.543<\/td>\n0.8363<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2001.627<\/td>\n0.8195<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2001.71<\/td>\n0.8099<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2001.793<\/td>\n0.8205<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2001.877<\/td>\n0.8263<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2001.96<\/td>\n0.8409<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2002.043<\/td>\n0.8489<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2002.127<\/td>\n0.8724<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2002.21<\/td>\n0.8802<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2002.293<\/td>\n0.8800<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2002.377<\/td>\n0.8847<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2002.46<\/td>\n0.8985<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2002.543<\/td>\n0.9206<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2002.627<\/td>\n0.9201<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2002.71<\/td>\n0.9080<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2002.793<\/td>\n0.9061<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2002.877<\/td>\n0.8963<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2002.96<\/td>\n0.8920<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2003.043<\/td>\n0.9045<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2003.127<\/td>\n0.8989<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2003.21<\/td>\n0.8939<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2003.293<\/td>\n0.8866<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2003.377<\/td>\n0.8885<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2003.46<\/td>\n0.8794<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2003.543<\/td>\n0.8819<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

To those who are enjoying the unit root saga, I’ve generated some synthetic temperatures by forcing “Lumpy” with forcings similar to those used to drive GISS Model E, plus some “mystery” noise. (The mystery noise is uncomplicated.) These data are provided at the bottom of this post. The synthetic temperatures resemble earth surface temperature because … Continue reading Does this have a unit root?<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[451,272],"class_list":["post-10252","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-data-comparisons","tag-statistics","tag-unit-root"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10252","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10252"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10252\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10252"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10252"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10252"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}