{"id":135,"date":"2008-02-26T13:15:56","date_gmt":"2008-02-26T21:15:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/2008\/yet-more-on-falsification\/"},"modified":"2008-02-26T13:15:57","modified_gmt":"2008-02-26T21:15:57","slug":"yet-more-on-falsification","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/2008\/yet-more-on-falsification\/","title":{"rendered":"Yet More on Falsification."},"content":{"rendered":"

Roger Pielke Jr. and David Stockwell both asked… can we use 2001-2010 data to falsify IPCC values.<\/p>\n

HadCrut - Crut Temperatures<\/a><\/p>\n

Now, as it happens, I<\/em> don’t like to use already collected before a prediction to test a prediction. I don’t like that the IPCC does that. <\/p>\n

But, oddly enough, the IPCC seems to do this all the time, and includes already existing data in their predictions. <\/p>\n

So…. <\/p>\n

    \n
  1. if you think calling the IPCC’s “2001-2010” predictions, made in 2007 ‘predictions’ even including the eariler data is fair, and <\/li>\n
  2. if the IPCC would normally use this 2001-2007 data to “confirm” their “prediction”, made in 2007<\/li>\n
  3. then, it is<\/i>, in some sense, fair to falsify their “predictions”, based on the same data the IPCC would use to confirm their predictions. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    As you can see, the current Hadley trend is flat, flat, falt. <\/p>\n

    So yes, if<\/i> the flat trend in Hadley data persists to the end of 2010, that would<\/i> be inconsistent with projections of the predicted 2.0C\/century trend. Only lower rates of increase would be consistent with the actual weather to a 95% confidence level. <\/p>\n

    Of course, then the arguments over who is right, Hadley or GISS will certainly come forward.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Roger Pielke Jr. and David Stockwell both asked… can we use 2001-2010 data to falsify IPCC values. Now, as it happens, I don’t like to use already collected before a prediction to test a prediction. I don’t like that the IPCC does that. But, oddly enough, the IPCC seems to do this all the time, … Continue reading Yet More on Falsification.<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-135","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-global-climate-change"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=135"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/135\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=135"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=135"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=135"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}