{"id":15957,"date":"2011-08-01T06:34:53","date_gmt":"2011-08-01T12:34:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/?p=15957"},"modified":"2011-08-01T09:59:56","modified_gmt":"2011-08-01T15:59:56","slug":"sea-ice-bets-bet-on-aug-sept-7-day-minimum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/2011\/sea-ice-bets-bet-on-aug-sept-7-day-minimum\/","title":{"rendered":"Sea Ice Bets: Bet on Aug-Sept 7 day minimum"},"content":{"rendered":"

Update<\/b>Re-dated<\/b> I’ve re-dated to Aug 1 from Jul 6 so people can easily check their bets and request revisions if they think their entry was a obvious blunder<\/i> and also to let you all see how your bets compare to other’s. I’ve done this in the past. Obvious blunders include negative signs, off by a factor of 10 or more etc. For example: ivp0 entered 459296 and I’m tempted to assume this is merely a typo and change that to 4.5296, but for now I’ll wait for him to confirm that was an error. <\/p>\n

It looks like Dr. Jay\/Shoosh entered a ridiculously high bet of 999999. This is Shoosh, so I suspect he meant to enter that. Given the rules of engagement, unless Mars attacks between now and Aug 8 and the attack involves freezing the entire ocean and simultaneously increasing the surface area of the earth, he will have lost within the first 7 days. If Shoosh\/Jay wants that changed, I’d appreciate him confirming the error before August 7.)<\/p>\n

Original below.
\n———— ————— ———— —————
\n
\nIt’s summer. As usual, as we watch the NH ice melt we ask ourselves: Will this years minimum be lower than last years? Will the 2007 sea ice minimum be broken? Will we be able to bet some quatloos?<\/p>\n

The answer to the last question is: Yes. Here are the rules:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. We use Jaxa Values posted here.<\/a> <\/li>\n
  2. On October 3, 2011<\/em> (or slightly after), I’ll compute the 7 day over the most recent value in August and September. In case of drop outs, I still compute over 7 entries; this could span more than 7 days. This is the only way I know to deal with the possibility that Jaxa might fail to report for 7 days in a row.) Whoever gets closest to this value wins the quatloos. I anticipate this will be the minimum weekly average and it will probably<\/em> be the minimum for the year. <\/li>\n
  3. Whoever gets closest to the minimum 7 day average wins the quatloos. <\/li>\n
  4. I am betting 4.881 x 10^6 km2<\/sup> basing my bet on the sophisticated method of “reading the post discussing last years preliminary value” and “adding a trivially small amount”. The reason for the latter is merely to permit someone to bet 4.88 if they want that value. \ud83d\ude42 <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    \"\"<\/a>
    \nFrom     JAXA<\/a><\/p>\n

    [sockulator(..\/musings\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/UAHBets5.php?Metric=NH Ice Extent?Units=x 106<\/sup> km2<\/sup>?cutOffMonth=8?cutOffDay=1?cutOffYear=2011?DateMetric=NH Ice Weekly Ave Minimum?)sockulator]
    \nThe cutoff day is entered as 8\/1\/2011, which really means you need to bet by midnight 7\/31… somewhere….<\/p>\n

    Tip to not screw up! :<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. When you are betting, numbers between 0 and 8 are more or less reasonable. Today, the most recent extent value is 8566563, or 8.566563 * 10^6. (Yes. Annabell Torres\/ Andrea\/ Albert\/ Laura Gonzales \/ Marie Deschamps\/ Rebecca \/Fulton, you are permitted to believe Mars will attack, cut off the sun, ice will begin to re-freeze so there will be more ice in August than today. But it’s unlikely. If Mars does attack, and the minimum ends up around 10, betting near 8 will probably win you \tthe quatloos.<\/li>\n
    2. After you successfully enter your bet, the betting form will be replaced by a message similar to this:
      \n“Thanks lucia. I added your prediction of 4.881 x 106 km2. You wagered 5 Quatloos.”<\/u>
      \nIt happens to appear slightly below the graph above and just before these tips. This will vanish when you re-visit the blog.\n<\/li>\n
    3. If you screwed up your bet, refresh the page. The betting form will reappear. Just re-enter your new bet correctly.<\/li>\n
    4. Should you enter 1,000,000 and fail to notice when the bets are revealed I am willing to change the order of magnitude of your bet on request. I won’t change bets of 5.1 to 4.9 on request because neither of those are obvious blunders.<\/li>\n
    5. Email is used for disambiguation of those with identical first names and to keep track of total winnings over multiple games (which I have actually posted once.) For the former, you can use a made up email. For the latter, you want to use the same email over and over. <\/li>\n
    6. You are required to complete a simple addition problem including decimals to prevent bots from betting. Addition-enabled bots have managed to ‘solve’ simple arithmetic problems like 3+5=8, but adding decimal places seems to have thwarted them. These bots generally bet exactly 0. If you really, really bet zero, and you are not a frequent commenter, you might want to let us know in comments so I can distinguish you from a bot! <\/li>\n
    7. If you are worried your bet does not appear and want me to enter it after the bets are made public, reveal your bet in comments. That will provide evidence that justifies my entering your bet manually after the fact. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      UpdateRe-dated I’ve re-dated to Aug 1 from Jul 6 so people can easily check their bets and request revisions if they think their entry was a obvious blunder and also to let you all see how your bets compare to other’s. I’ve done this in the past. Obvious blunders include negative signs, off by a … Continue reading Sea Ice Bets: Bet on Aug-Sept 7 day minimum<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[133,334],"class_list":["post-15957","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-betting","tag-ice","tag-nh-ice"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15957","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=15957"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15957\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=15957"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=15957"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=15957"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}