![\"\"](\"http:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/07\/NHSeaIce_7Day.png\" "\\"NHSeaIce_7Day\\"")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe plot also shows the minimum 7 day average for each year in the record along with the current minimum for 2011. The 7 day average computed 7 days ago is shown in the notes on the lower left hand side. Neven suggested I use the minimum value as being more exciting and I think suggested that using the average forces us to wait to long to call the result. <\/p>\n
It is more exciting to use the daily minimum. Unfortunately, it is also the case that we frequently see a relative daily minimum before the final daily minimum. So, even if we saw a daily minimum, we would still need to wait a week or two to confirm that it is a minimum. The 7 day average is a bit less noisy, but I think we still need to wait a week after a relative minimum to call a winner. Since minimums have occurred near the end of September, I think waiting until all of September has reported is safe. <\/p>\n
For those who want to fiddle with scripts, I am also attaching the R file. Those who read the R file will note that the 7 day average is computed by:<\/p>\n
- \n
- Deleting all values with missing data (denoted by -9999).<\/li>\n
- Averaging over 7 consecutive values. When data is missing, the computation is still over 7 available days. These may span more than 7 calendar days. <\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
I wrote this script this morning. Those who would like additional information on the graph, request what you’d like. If it’s easy I’ll add it. Meanwhile: Bet here.<\/a> <\/p>\n
ReadJaxa_fun<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Steven Mosher wanted clarification on how I will be computing the 7-‘day’ average, and which value will “win” the quatloos. Today, I am showing the 7-‘day’ average computed since 2002. The plot also shows the minimum 7 day average for each year in the record along with the current minimum for 2011. The 7 day … Continue reading The 7-day NH Ice Extent Average.<\/span>