{"id":16536,"date":"2011-08-16T10:15:12","date_gmt":"2011-08-16T16:15:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/?p=16536"},"modified":"2011-08-16T10:15:12","modified_gmt":"2011-08-16T16:15:12","slug":"histogram-of-sea-ice-bets-two-bettors-have-already-lost","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/2011\/histogram-of-sea-ice-bets-two-bettors-have-already-lost\/","title":{"rendered":"Histogram of Sea Ice Bets: Two bettors have already lost."},"content":{"rendered":"

I thought I’d show you how people’s bets entered here<\/a> compare to the current values as well as my estimate of the current estimate of the range in which the 7-day minimum will fall. Below I’ve posted a histogram of the bets (purple), along with the \u00c2\u00b195% range in which bets fall (purple lines):<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
\nThe most recent 7-day minimum is shown in black; the best estimate and \u00c2\u00b195% confidence intervals for the up-coming minimum based on my weighted model is show in blue. <\/p>\n

My bet is shown in yellow and is fairly close to my current prediction for the upcoming winning value. I’m not the closest though: The current front runner is DeWitt Payne who wagered 5 quatloos the minimum extent will be 4.591 million square kilometers. But the pack is tight: the whose bet is within 0.1 millions square kilometers of my current best prediction for the upcoming minimum are: lucia , rc , David Jay, George Tobin, mccall, Steve T, John F. Pittman, Chris Brown, DeWitt Payne, ivp0, Geoff Cruickshank, RobB, Boris, AMac, Anamoi. (Listed in reverse order based on when the bet was entered.) <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, according to my estimate of the of the most likely ultimate value, 56 betters fall inside the \u00c2\u00b195% uncertainty intervals for the range in which the 7-day minimum is likely to fall; 20 fall outside.<\/p>\n

But even if you fall outside my estimate of the uncertainty for predicting the minimum, keep heart! There are still at least 5 weeks to the ice minimum. Statistical predictions are just based on assuming the past is prologue to the future: but sometimes things change. This year, the ice could blow out of through the Fram– or not. Almost any better could still win. <\/p>\n

Has anyone obviously lost?<\/strong>
\nOf course. By entering a ridiculous value that exceeds the surface area of the earth, Shoosh\/Jay lost before the melt even started. But I ignore him when computing statistics.<\/p>\n

Some of you can now see that the relatively high mean value of blackboard bets arises in part from bets by “feabqtcqy” (the adding enabled bot who keeps betting) and “suzanne”. Both may have adopted the strategy of trying to capture the quatloos in the event that mars attacked clouding the skies and preventing ice melt. Since the 7-day minimum in August is well below their values, even if ice began to reform now, both suzanne and feabqtcby’s bets are out of contention for the win. <\/p>\n

Sorry feabqtcby and Suzanne, better luck next time. feabqtcby, I know you’re the silent type, but your quatloos are always welcomed by the pool. Suzanne, if you’re lurking, let us know whether I’ve correctly guessed your strategy. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I thought I’d show you how people’s bets entered here compare to the current values as well as my estimate of the current estimate of the range in which the 7-day minimum will fall. Below I’ve posted a histogram of the bets (purple), along with the \u00c2\u00b195% range in which bets fall (purple lines): The … Continue reading Histogram of Sea Ice Bets: Two bettors have already lost.<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16536","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-betting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16536","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16536"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16536\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16536"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16536"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16536"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}