{"id":16575,"date":"2011-08-24T08:28:08","date_gmt":"2011-08-24T14:28:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/?p=16575"},"modified":"2011-08-24T08:45:03","modified_gmt":"2011-08-24T14:45:03","slug":"wednesday-nh-ice-update-recent-extent-losses","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/2011\/wednesday-nh-ice-update-recent-extent-losses\/","title":{"rendered":"Wednesday NH Ice Update: Recent Extent Losses"},"content":{"rendered":"

The last few days on the melt front have been exciting. The melt rate increased prompting Neven to post Flash Melting<\/a> which is worth visiting and reading to see side-by-side satellite figures of the ice concentration and read comments discussing of whether ice actually melted, was compressed or whether sensors tend to mis-detect ice after water has washed over the top of the ice. <\/p>\n

Meanwhile, I’m just going to show figures that put the numerical value of the reported extent loss in context.
\nOne-Day Extent Loss<\/b>
\nIf I recall correctly, some in Neven’s comments wondered in anticipation if this was going to be a record 1-day loss. I wondered myself, so I added spaghetti to my script and created a graph showing 1 day extent losses:
\n\"\"<\/a>
\nIt turns out the recent losses are not records in the combined JAXA\/GSFC record back to 1979. (I could also look back to 1972 but plot only back to 1979 when CT areas are available.) Our pen-ultimate loss rate (i.e. “day before yesterday”) was the 2nd highest single day loss for day 234 since 1979 and the 3rd loss since 1972.
\n
\nTwo-Day Extent Loss Rate<\/strong>
\nThe loss event seems to have persisted, so I decided to add even more spaghetti and plotted the two day loss rate:
\n\"\"<\/a>
\nThe current 2-day losses are also not records. They are high for this time of year, but I didn’t pull out the numbers to see if we are the 2nd, 3rd highest or what not. <\/p>\n

Weekly Extent Loss Rate<\/strong>
\nAs it is my intention to post updates roughly weekly, I usually show weekly loss rates. This is the weekly loss rate with a final black “dot” showing the loss rate if the most recent daily loss rate is sustained:
\n\"\"<\/a>
\nThe 7 day average loss rate has been high for this time of year but is not at record levels.<\/p>\n

Mind you: My statistical model says 2011 could break the record minimum. Doing so does not require breaking a 1-day, 2-day or 7 day extent loss which are short term. It only requires achieving above averages extent losses or<\/i> having extent loss persist a relatively late into September.<\/p>\n

Current NH Extent values<\/strong>
\nDespite the recent relatively rapid extent losses, the JAXA 7-day average extent remains above the 2007 record minimum.
\n\"\"<\/a>
\n(This is the metric our Quatloo bet uses.)<\/p>\n

Area JAXA and CT:<\/strong>
\nIn comments, Owen observed that the JAXA area<\/I> has dropped rapidly; it has. The auto-updating JAXA graphic (currently dated 8\/23) is provided below:
\n
\nCurrently, the 2010 Area remains above the 2007 minimum. Not being Mother Nature, I can’t guarantee that won’t change by tomorrow.<\/p>\n

CT today’s reporting for area is currently lagging the JAXA extent reporting by one day. Nevertheless, I plotted the daily values up to the final one reported.
\n\"\"<\/a>
\nUsing currently available data, CTs 2010 area remains higher than the minimum in 2007. All agencies show we are in a rapid area\/extent loss period; I don’t know if this will change tomorrow.<\/p>\n

Also note: Dewitt pointed out that the 2007 rate of area loss was relatively slow during late August resulting in a relatively early area minimum. If an average loss rate prevails this year, we will watch the CT area fall below the 2007 minimum. Laura S.<\/a> has explained why she thinks the area minimum might well exhibit a slow loss this year. Me? I don’t know. I haven’t focused on looking at factors that most strongly affecting or correlate with area loss in late August and early September. We’ll see. <\/p>\n

The bets<\/b>
\nIf you are wondering how the bets are going: I’m going to show my current estimate of the odds of exceeding the 2007 extent 7-day JAXA extent minimum or exceeding the 2010 value tomorrow. I am deferring because currently, the most<\/i> likely model in the collection I weight involves the use of the CT 7-day area and I think that might change a lot by tomorrow. <\/p>\n

I’ll show histograms and report on the odds of a minimum tomorrow. <\/p>\n

Oh… but if I did show the histogram, I happen to be the “front runner” in the sense that my bet is closest to the best estimate of my own model. The \u00c2\u00b195% uncertainty range is reported as 4.11 to 5.02 million km2<\/sup>. Both will probably change tomorrow too. Given observed recent loss rates, I anticipate we’ll knock 5.00 out of the \u00c2\u00b195% uncertainty window when CT reports their area! <\/p>\n

Meanwhile: Mosher said if I write “Jeez, Jeez, Jeez” he will conjure Jeez. We’re hoping for his acclaimed narratives on ‘the baby ice’. So, “Jeez, Jeez, Jeez”! <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The last few days on the melt front have been exciting. The melt rate increased prompting Neven to post Flash Melting which is worth visiting and reading to see side-by-side satellite figures of the ice concentration and read comments discussing of whether ice actually melted, was compressed or whether sensors tend to mis-detect ice after … Continue reading Wednesday NH Ice Update: Recent Extent Losses<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[334],"class_list":["post-16575","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-betting","tag-nh-ice"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16575","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16575"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16575\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16575"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16575"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16575"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}