{"id":16600,"date":"2011-08-25T13:56:32","date_gmt":"2011-08-25T19:56:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/?p=16600"},"modified":"2011-08-25T13:56:32","modified_gmt":"2011-08-25T19:56:32","slug":"tie-for-lead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/2011\/tie-for-lead\/","title":{"rendered":"Tie for lead!"},"content":{"rendered":"

As mentioned yesterday, the ice extent recently experienced losses at daily rate in the upper 10% of those observed in the combined JAXA\/GSFC record. The event was sufficiently extreme that I waited until CT reported areas before posting the current extent, the current best forecast based on my weighted model and announcing the which bettors appear to have taken the lead. Based on my model forecast Steve T and Chris Brown are tied! I don’t know which got his bet in first, but numerically they are neck and neck:
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Meanwhile, my current best estimate for the minimum is 4.55 million square kilometers, with a \u00c2\u00b12σ range from 4.12 to 4.99 square kilometers:<\/p>\n

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Reading discussions at Neven’s blog I was motivated to try to include the most recent ice volume levels reported by PIOMASS in the fit. However, so far none of the single or multiple regressions involving either volume or (volume\/ct) area have passed my criteria for including those predictions in the weighted model I use to creat forcasts. Some of the regressions would have passed my criterion for AICc having AICc’s suggesting they are at least 1\/20th likely as the most like regression of those I tested; in fact some appear quite<\/i> likely. However, of those all had at least on regression coefficient that was not statistically significant so they are rejected as candidate models for my weighted model. Had I ignored the lack of statistical significance in the regression coefficients, my best estimate for the upcoming extent minimum would be 4.51 million square kilometers and my uncertainty intervals would be larger than those associated with the model used to create the current forecast. I will be looking at regressions with volume a bit more because it seems to me that volume or thickness may somehow matter, but it may be that something like “volume^ 3\/2” would result in better predictions. (Note: volume ^3\/2 has units area; that’s why I’m going to look at it. )<\/p>\n

Next week we’ll see if a new leader has pushed SteveT or ChrisBrown out of the lead. It’s hard to predict who is going to win the quatloos. This is quite a horse-race. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As mentioned yesterday, the ice extent recently experienced losses at daily rate in the upper 10% of those observed in the combined JAXA\/GSFC record. The event was sufficiently extreme that I waited until CT reported areas before posting the current extent, the current best forecast based on my weighted model and announcing the which bettors … Continue reading Tie for lead!<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[49],"tags":[334],"class_list":["post-16600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-betting","tag-nh-ice"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16600","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16600"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16600\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16600"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16600"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rankexploits.com\/musings\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16600"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}